restricted access   Number 4, July 2007

Table of Contents


China in the Year 2020

China in 2020: Bridging the Academic-Policy Gap with Scenario Planning

pp. 2-6

Alternative Security and Foreign Policy Futures for China: 2020

pp. 7-15

China in the Year 2020: Three Political Scenarios

pp. 17-29

China's Economy in 2020: The Challenge of a Second Transition

pp. 31-40

Cultural Dynamics in China: Today and in 2020

pp. 41-52

Sizing the Chinese Military


pp. 54-56

The "Right Size" for China's Military: To What Ends?

pp. 57-60

Framing the Problem: China's Threat Environment

pp. 61-66

China's National Military Strategy: An Overview of the "Military Strategic Guidelines"

pp. 67-72

"Preserving the State": Modernizing and Task-Organizing a "Hybrid" PLA Ground Force

pp. 73-77

PLA Ground Force Modernization Underway in All Military Regions, Preparing for a Variety of Missions

pp. 78-83

Rightsizing the People's Liberation Army Navy: How Much Naval Force Will Beijing Deploy by 2016?

pp. 84-88

PLA Navy Building: Rationale and Prospects for the Future

pp. 89-94

The Future Force Structure of the Chinese Air Force

pp. 95-99

China: Warfare in the Information Age

pp. 101-105


Militant Recruitment in Pakistan: A New Look at the Militancy-Madrasah Connection

pp. 107-134

Research Note

China's Fifteen-Year Plan for Science and Technology: An Assessment

pp. 135-164

Policy Analysis

Managing the U.S.-China Foreign Economic Dialogue: Building Greater Coordination and New Habits of Consultation

pp. 165-185

Book Review Roundtable

Kenneth B. Pyle, Japan Rising: The Resurgence of Japanese Power and Purpose

Richard J. Samuels, Security Japan: Tokyo's Grand Strategy and the Future of East Asia

The Pendulum Swings toward a Rising Sun

pp. 188-190

Change in Japan's Grand Strategy: Why and How Much?

pp. 191-196

Japan's Rise and Its Alliance with the United States

pp. 196-198

Japan's Doctoring of the Yoshida Doctrine

pp. 199-204

Author's Response: The Primacy of Foreign Policy in Modern Japan

pp. 208-211

Author's Response: How Japan Balances Strategy and Constraint

pp. 204-208