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THE CRAFT OF POLITICAL ANALYSIS FOR DIPLOMATS ALSO BY RAYMOND F. SMITH Negotiating with the Soviets (Indiana University Press, 1989) ADST-DACOR DIPLOMATS AND DIPLOMACY SERIES Series Editor: Margery Boichel Thompson Since 1776, extraordinary men and women have represented the United States abroad under all sorts of circumstances. What they did and how and why they did it remain little known to their compatriots. In 1995 the Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training (ADST) and Diplomatic and Consular Officers, Retired, Inc. (DACOR) created the Diplomats and Diplomacy book series to increase public knowledge and appreciation of the involvement of American diplomats in world history. The series seeks to demystify diplomacy by telling the story of those who have conducted U.S. foreign relations, as they lived, influenced, and reported them. Raymond F. Smith’s The Craft of Political Analysis for Diplomats, the forty-eighth volume in the series, illuminates the professionalism the best diplomats employ in serving their country. OTHER TITLES IN THE SERIES HERMAN J. COHEN, Intervening in Africa: Superpower Peacemaking in aTroubled Continent BRANDON GROVE, Behind Embassy Walls: The Life and Times of an American Diplomat PARKER T. HART, Saudi Arabia and the United States: Birth of a Security Partnership EDMUND J. HULL, High-Value Target: Countering al Qaeda in Yemen CAMERON R. HUME, Mission to Algiers: Diplomacy by Engagement KEMPTON JENKINS, Cold War Saga DENNIS KUX, The United States and Pakistan, 1947–2000: Disenchanted Allies TERRY MCNAMARA, Escape with Honor: My Last Hours in Vietnam WILLIAM B. MILAM, Bangladesh and Pakistan: Flirting with Failure in Muslim South Asia ROBERT H. MILLER, Vietnam and Beyond: A Diplomat’s Cold War Education RONALD E. NEUMANN, The Other War: Winning and Losing in Afghanistan RICHARD B. PARKER, Uncle Sam in Barbary: A Diplomatic History RALPH PEZZULLO, Plunging into Haiti: Clinton, Aristide, and the Defeat of Diplomacy YALE RICHMOND, Practicing Public Diplomacy: A Cold War Odyssey HOWARD B. SCHAFFER, The Limits of Influence: America’s Role in Kashmir HOWARD R. SIMPSON, Bush Hat, Black Tie: Adventures of a Foreign Service Officer JAMES STEPHENSON, Losing the Golden Hour: An Insider’s View of Iraq’s Reconstruction ULRICH STRAUS, The Anguish of Surrender: Japanese POWs of World War II THE CRAFT OF POLITICAL ANALYSIS FOR DIPLOMATS RAYMOND F. SMITH An ADST-DACOR Diplomats and Diplomacy Book Copyright © 2011 by Raymond F. Smith Published in the United States by Potomac Books, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. The opinions and characterizations in this book are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training, DACOR, or the Government of the United States. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Smith, Raymond F., 1941– The craft of political analysis for diplomats / Raymond F. Smith. — 1st ed. p. cm. — (Adst-dacor diplomats and diplomacy series) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-59797-729-6 (paperback: alk. paper) ISBN 978-1-59797-730-2 (electronic edition) 1. Diplomacy—Methodology. 2. Political science—Methodology. 3. Diplomats— In-service training. I. Title. JZ1305.S62 2011 353.1’3270973—dc22 2011013946 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper that meets the American National Standards Institute Z39-48 Standard. Potomac Books 22841 Quicksilver Drive Dulles, Virginia 20166 First Edition 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 To the men and women of the United States Foreign Service and to their counterparts in other countries This page intentionally left blank ...


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