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137 NOTES CHAPTER 1. WHAT IS POLITICAL ANALYSIS AND WHY IS IT A CRAFT? 1. The American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 2003). 2. There have generally been two criteria for access to specific classified information: having the appropriate security clearance and having a specific reason for needing to know the information in question. While for most “routine” classified material the “need to know” is not a significant bar to access, it becomes a greater issue with regard to more sensitive information. The implications of this will be discussed in more depth later, as will modifications of the “need to know” doctrine that have resulted from a combination of technological developments and the September 11, 2001, attack on the United States. 3. I want to stipulate that in almost every place where I use the term “his,” I mean “her or his.” I hope the reader will forgive me for choosing stylistic simplicity over gender neutrality. 4. Edward T. Hall, Beyond Culture (Garden City, NY: Anchor Press/Doubleday, 1976). CHAPTER 2. THE OBJECTIVES OF DIPLOMATIC POLITICAL ANALYSIS 1. This is how it is supposed to work. The author recognizes that in the real world these lines may be crossed, either accidentally or deliberately. 2. This is cable-speak for embassy officer. It is generally considered bad form to identify oneself by name in embassy cables, although titles may be used for more senior embassy officers (e.g., political counselor). 138 ———— NOTES 3. Steve Kashkett, recipient of the award in 1992, responding in 2008 to the author ’s questionnaire on diplomatic political analysis (hereafter cited as “author’s questionnaire”). CHAPTER 3. THE AUDIENCE 1. And sometimes you are surprised. In my case, the assistant secretary personally complimented me on my analytical efforts, and the embassy nominated me for the department’s annual political reporting award, pleasant experiences for an officer on his second political assignment abroad. 2. We will discuss what these terms mean for diplomatic political analysis in a later chapter. 3. Stan A. Taylor and David Goldman, “Intelligence Reform: Will More Agencies, Money, and Personnel Help?,” Intelligence and National Security 19, no.3 (Autumn 2004): 416–435, 420. 4. I have been told by someone then involved in these matters at the State Department that the intelligence community was unanimous in its judgment on the likelihood that Iraq had a chemical or biological weapons program. Two analysts in the INR Bureau disagreed with the assessment that Iraq had an active nuclear weapons program. 5. X (Kennan, George F.), “The Sources of Soviet Conduct,” Foreign Affairs 25 (July 1947): 566–582. CHAPTER 4. THE COMPETITION 1. Strobe Talbott, “Globalization and Diplomacy: A Practitioner’s Perspective,” Foreign Policy 108 (Fall 1997): 69. Since Talbott was speaking on an open telephone line, he had to depict the conversation as unclassified, no matter what he was discussing . 2. Amb. Daniel C. Kurtzer, S. Daniel Abraham Visiting Professor of Middle East Policy Studies, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University. Ambassador Kurtzer is a former career Foreign Service officer and received the Director General’s Award for Reporting in 1985. The text quoted is from his response to author’s questionnaire. 3. “Food No Longer Reaches City,” Washington Post, December 23, 1990; “Soviet Neighbors Brace for Refugees,” Washington Post, December 23, 1990; “Poland, Others Forecast Flood of Soviet Refugees,” Washington Post, November 15, 1990; “Western NOTES ———— 139 Europe Braces for Migrant Wave,” New York Times, December 14, 1990; “Food Shortages Cause Desperation in Moscow,” New York Times, November 27, 1990. 4. Bill Keller in the New York Times and David Remnick in the Washington Post were two of the journalists who got this story right. They reported on the record harvest, pointed out the rampant waste that was endemic to the Soviet agricultural system, and cited distribution breakdowns that could produce local shortages. 5. Jack Matlock, Autopsy on an Empire (New York: Random House, 1995), 437. 6. Mark Foulon, former deputy under secretary of commerce, former career Foreign Service officer and recipient of the Director General’s Award for Reporting in 1990. Response to author’s questionnaire. CHAPTER 5. THE ANALYST’S PERSONAL TOOLKIT 1. This is not false modesty. I am not gifted at foreign languages. With difficulty, I became somewhat adequate in Russian and a bit better than adequate in French. I regarded my colleagues more gifted in this area with admiration and a bit of envy. 2. Amb. Jack Matlock, personal communication...


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