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Anticipating Correlations

A New Paradigm for Risk Management

Robert Engle

Financial markets respond to information virtually instantaneously. Each new piece of information influences the prices of assets and their correlations with each other, and as the system rapidly changes, so too do correlation forecasts. This fast-evolving environment presents econometricians with the challenge of forecasting dynamic correlations, which are essential inputs to risk measurement, portfolio allocation, derivative pricing, and many other critical financial activities. In Anticipating Correlations, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Engle introduces an important new method for estimating correlations for large systems of assets: Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC).

Engle demonstrates the role of correlations in financial decision making, and addresses the economic underpinnings and theoretical properties of correlations and their relation to other measures of dependence. He compares DCC with other correlation estimators such as historical correlation, exponential smoothing, and multivariate GARCH, and he presents a range of important applications of DCC. Engle presents the asymmetric model and illustrates it using a multicountry equity and bond return model. He introduces the new FACTOR DCC model that blends factor models with the DCC to produce a model with the best features of both, and illustrates it using an array of U.S. large-cap equities. Engle shows how overinvestment in collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, lies at the heart of the subprime mortgage crisis--and how the correlation models in this book could have foreseen the risks. A technical chapter of econometric results also is included.

Based on the Econometric and Tinbergen Institutes Lectures, Anticipating Correlations puts powerful new forecasting tools into the hands of researchers, financial analysts, risk managers, derivative quants, and graduate students.

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Antitrust Economics on Trial

A Dialogue on the New Laissez-Faire

Walter Adams

Is it the central purpose of American antitrust policy to encourage decentralization of economic power? Or is it to promote "consumer welfare"? Is there a painful trade-off between market dominance and economic "efficiency"? What is the proper role of government in this area? In recent years the public policy debate on these core questions has been marked by a cacophony of divergent opinions--theorists against empiricists, apostles of the "new learning" against defenders of the traditional structure-conduct-performance paradigm, "laissez-faire" advocates against "interventionists." Utilizing a distinctively innovative format, Walter Adams and James Brock examine these issues in the context of a courtroom dialogue among a proponent of the new learning (Chicago School), a prosecuting attorney, and a U.S. district judge. In contrast to bloodless "scientific" treatises or ideologically inspired polemical tracts, this book lays bare the central arguments in the debate about free-market economics and the latent assumptions and disguised terminology on which those arguments are based. The dialogue is both gripping and entertaining--designed by the authors to be reminiscent at times of the Theater of the Absurd.

Originally published in 1991.

The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These paperback editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

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Antitrust Policy and Vertical Restraints

edited by Robert W. Hahn

Antitrust law is intended to protect consumer welfare and foster competition. At first glance, however, it is often unclear whether certain business practices have positive or detrimental effects. Businesses frequently engage in activities that may appear anticompetitive on the surface, but are actually beneficial to consumers. Business tying practices, for example, make the sale of one product conditional upon the sale of another product. This practice can either deprive consumers of choice and drive up prices or lower costs and improve convenience. Therefore, it is critical that policymakers have a keen understanding of which vertical restraints —limitations imposed on businesses by firms located in the production chain —are likely to harm consumers more than they benefit competition. In order to formulate economically efficient policies, they must be able to identify and limit those practices that are likely to do more harm than good. In A ntitrust Policy and Vertical Restraints a group of leading scholars takes a hard look at how restraints limit the conditions under which firms may purchase, sell, or resell a good or service. The authors, representing both sides of the antitrust debate over tying practices, provide a uniquely broad perspective on this critical economic policy issue. Contributors include Dennis Carlton (University of Chicago), David Evans (University College London), Bruce Kobayashi (George Mason University), and Michael Waldman (Cornell University).

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An APEC Trade Agenda?

The Political Economy of a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific

Charles E Morrison and Eduardo Pedrosa

The proposal for an Asia-Pacific–wide free trade agreement is one of the oldest ideas for promoting mutually beneficial regional cooperation dating back to the mid-1960s. In more recent times, the idea has found new support for two main reasons: as a plan B to the stumbling Doha Development Agenda (DDA) round of WTO negotiations; and as a solution to the noodle bowl of bilateral agreements in the region. This report assesses the political feasibility of the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) proposal and looks at alternative modalities for achieving free trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific. The report includes trade policy perspectives from the three largest economies of the region: the United States, China and Japan, lessons from similar proposals such as the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), possible convergence among the many preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in the region, and alternative approaches to regional economic integration.

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Appalachia's Path to Dependency

Rethinking a Region's Economic History, 1730-1940

Paul Salstrom

In Appalachia's Path to Dependency, Paul Salstrom examines the evolution of economic life over time in southern Appalachia. Moving away from the colonial model to an analysis based on dependency, he exposes the complex web of factors -- regulation of credit, industrialization, population growth, cultural values, federal intervention -- that has worked against the region.

Salstrom argues that economic adversity has resulted from three types of disadvantages: natural, market, and political. The overall context in which Appalachia's economic life unfolded was one of expanding United States markets and, after the Civil War, of expanding capitalist relations.

Covering Appalachia's economic history from early white settlement to the end of the New Deal, this work is not simply an economic interpretation but draws as well on other areas of history. Whereas other interpretations of Appalachia's economy have tended to seek social or psychological explanations for its dependency, this important work compels us to look directly at the region's economic history. This regional perspective offers a clear-eyed view of Appalachia's path in the future.

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Applied Time Series Econometrics

A Practical Guide for Macroeconomic Researchers with a Focus on Africa

Alemayehu Geda

This book attempts to demystify time series econometrics so as to equip macroeconomic researchers focusing on Africa with solid but accessible foundation in applied time series techniques that can deal with challenges of developing economic models using African data.

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The Arab Spring Five Years Later

Case Studies

edited by Hafez Ghanem

This second volume of The Arab Spring Five Years Later provides the original research papers on which volume 1 by Hafez Ghanem is based. In this edited volume, Ghanem assembles a collection of important research conducted by scholars from a variety of backgrounds to provide a deeper understanding of the economic factors that led to the Arab Spring. Chapters examine women's issues and agricultural practices in Morocco; urban transportation, small enterprises, governance, and inclusive planning in Egypt; reconstruction in Iraq; youth employment in Tunisia; education in Yemen; and more.

In addition to Hafez Ghanem, contributors include Mongi Boughzala (University of Tunis ElManar, Tunisia), Emmanuel Comolet (French Agency for Development), Mohamed Tlili Hamdi (University of Sfax, Tunisia), Seiki Tanaka (University of Amsterdam), and from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Yuriko Kameyama, Mayada Magdy, Hideki Matsunaga, Yuko Morikawa, Akira Murata, Kei Sakamoto, Masanori Yoshikawa, and Takako Yuki.

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The Arab Spring Five Years Later

Toward Great Inclusiveness

Hafez Ghanem

Hafez Ghanem delivers a thorough assessment of the economic dimensions of the Arab Spring, beginning with political developments since the revolutions and the economic impact of changes in legal and institutional frameworks. Arab economies grew at healthy rates before the revolts, but the benefits of economic growth were unfairly distributed. The politically connected reaped great benefits, while educated youth could not find decent jobs, and the poor and middle class struggled to make ends meet.

Ghanem advises the Arab Spring countries to adopt new economic policies and programs that enhance inclusiveness, expand the middle class, and foster growth in undeveloped regions. Key elements include strengthening economic institutions, developing small businesses, reforming the education system to better prepare Arab youth for the modern labor market, promoting gender equality with the objective of raising female labor market participation rates, and setting up programs for rural and regional development to reduce inequality and eliminate extreme poverty.

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Aramco, the United States, and Saudi Arabia

A Study of the Dynamics of Foreign Oil Policy, 1922-1950

Irvine H. Anderson Jr.

Irvine Anderson carefully reconstructs the years between 1933 and 1950 and provides a case study of the evolution of U.S. foreign oil policy and of the complex relationships between the U.S. government and the business world.

Originally published in 1987.

The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These paperback editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

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Art and the Market

Roger Fry on Commerce in Art, Selected Writings, Edited with an Interpretation

Craufurd D. Goodwin

Roger Fry, a core member of the Bloomsbury Group, was involved with all aspects of the art market as artist, critic, curator, historian, journalist, advisor to collectors, and gallery operator. He is especially remembered as the person who introduced postimpressionist art to Britain. Reprinted in this volume are seventeen of Fry's works on commerce in art. Although he had no formal training in economics, Fry addressed the art market as a modern economist might do. It is therefore fitting that his writings receive here an original interpretation from the perspective of a modern economist, Craufurd D. Goodwin. Goodwin explores why Fry's work is both a landmark in the history of cross-disciplinary thought and a source of fresh insights into a wide range of current policy questions. The new writings included contain Fry's most important contributions to theory, history, and debates over policy as he explored the determinants of the supply of art, the demand for art, and the art market institutions that facilitate exchange. His ideas and speculations are as stimulating and provocative today as when they were written. "A fascinating selection of essays by one of the twentieth century's most thoughtful and stimulating critics. Goodwin's introduction sets the stage beautifully, providing useful links to Veblen and Keynes." --D. E. Moggridge, University of Toronto "Art and the Market uncovers new connections between aesthetics and art in the Bloomsbury Group. . . . Goodwin adds significantly to the understanding of cultural economics in the work of Fry himself as well as J. M. Keynes and even Leonard and Virginia Woolf." --S. P. Rosenbaum, University of Toronto "All those interested in the arts and economics, and their connections, will be delighted by this collection, as will be students of Bloomsbury." --Peter Stansky, Stanford University Craufurd D. Goodwin is James B. Duke Professor of Economics, Duke University.

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