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This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily and more frequent asset prices, and the prices of option contracts, can be used to construct and assess predictions about future prices, their volatility, and their probability distributions.
Stephen Taylor provides a comprehensive introduction to the dynamic behavior of asset prices, relying on finance theory and statistical evidence. He uses stochastic processes to define mathematical models for price dynamics, but with less mathematics than in alternative texts. The key topics covered include random walk tests, trading rules, ARCH models, stochastic volatility models, high-frequency datasets, and the information that option prices imply about volatility and distributions.
Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction is ideal for students of economics, finance, and mathematics who are studying financial econometrics, and will enable researchers to identify and apply appropriate models and methods. It will likewise be a valuable resource for quantitative analysts, fund managers, risk managers, and investors who seek realistic expectations about future asset prices and the risks to which they are exposed.
How to Excel in a Bureaucracy, 4th Edition
Findings of a Ten-Nation Survey
This report shares results of a regionwide survey undertaken in late 2007 among over 2,000 students from leading universities across ASEAN member countries. The survey addressed questions on whether youths today consider themselves to be citizens of ASEAN; whether the region's youth are enthusiastic or skeptical about ASEAN; how well the region's youth know ASEAN and its members; and their concerns for the Association and the region. Survey findings indicate a nascent sense of ownership and stake in ASEAN, despite some clear differences in knowledge and opinions on the grouping. It is interesting to note that the students agreed on the importance of economic cooperation and addressing poverty and development needs; and share a desire to know more about the region. Responses from the survey provide a useful source of information for ASEAN policy-makers on promoting awareness about ASEAN and the challenges and opportunities the region faces in pursuing regional integration.
The Entrepreneurs’ Frontier
Nestled in the heart of the Finger Lakes region, Auburn, New York, is home to some of the key figures in our nation’s history. Both William Seward and Harriet Tubman lived in Auburn, as did Martha Coffin Wright, a pioneering figure in the struggle for women’s suffrage. Auburn’s significance to American life, however, goes beyond its role in political and social movements. The seeds of American development were sown and bore fruit in small urban centers like Auburn. The town’s early and rapid success secured its place as a cornerstone of the North American industrial core. Anderson chronicles the story of Auburn and its inhabitants, individuals with the skills and ingenuity to nurture and sustain an economy of unprecedented growth. He describes the early settlers who capitalized on the rich geographic advantages of the area: abundant water power and access to transportation routes. The entrepreneurs and capital that Auburn attracted built it into a thriving community, one that became a center of invention, manufacturing, and finance in the mid-nineteenth century. Just as the high profits and rapid accumulation of wealth allowed the community to prosper and grow, these factors also initiated its decline. Anderson traces Auburn’s momentous rise and gradual decline, illustrating American capitalism in its rawest form as it played out in small towns across the nation.
Changing the Way America Saves
Automatic offers an innovative new way to think about how Americans can save for retirement.
Over the past quarter century, America's pension system has shifted away from defined benefit plans and toward defined contribution savings programs such as 401(k)s and IRAs. There is much to be done to improve the defined contribution system. Many workers fail to participate and those who do often contribute too little, invest the funds poorly, and are not adequately prepared to manage funds while in retirement.
To resolve these problems, the authors propose that employees should be automatically enrolled into a 401(k) plan when they are hired, with the right to opt out, change the amount that they contribute, or change investment choices if they choose. If the employer does not sponsor a 401(k) or similar retirement plan, they would be enrolled in a payroll deduction Automatic IRA. This vision of a transformed defined contribution system incorporates key positive features of defined benefit plans to improve retirement security. Employess contributions would increase over time, their investments would benefit from professional management and rebalancing, and they would receive lifetime income upon retirement. These automatic features will make the 401(k) and similar plans a more effective tool for retirement saving, and they can be extended to the many workers who do not currently have access to an employer plan.
In Automatic, the authors present proposals to implement automatic features in all phases of the 401(k) and in IRAs for workers with no employer plan. They also draw from the experience of countries that have implemented automatic saving structures.
Le Québec et la Catalogne à l'heure du libre-échange et de la Communauté européenne
Les nationalismes catalan, québécois et canadien - Le Québec, ses régions et la décentralisation - Le libre-échange - Le droit international à l'information face aux technologies de communication - Le marketing au Québec - Politique culturelle et gestion de la culture - Autonomie politique et conflit linguistique - Sentiment national et langue - Perspective culturelle.
En tenant compte des perspectives de géographes et de communicologues, tant Français que Québécois, les auteurs présentent la problématique des rapports entre territoires et techniques de communication. Ils analysent ensuite des cas spécifiques d'expérimentation des TIC en France et au Québec (Parthenay, Hiérapolis, UBI, etc.) observés, tour à tour de l'intérieur et de l'extérieur et, finalement, s'interrogent sur la position des villes et des régions dans le développement des autoroutes de l'information.
A group of award-winning economists discuss topics including microfinance, human capital, economic development, worker motivation, and economic regulation.
The digital revolution has forever changed American journalism, and not for the better. Robert Kaiser, former managing editor of The Washington Post, writes in his new Brookings Essay that the changing media landscape is not only a threat to traditional news, but to the future of democracy. A news industry without a viable business model, distracted by the need to attract eyeballs and discover new revenue streams, could lose the ability to provide the balanced, comprehensive, and investigative journalism that is the lifeblood of a healthy democracy.
THE BROOKINGS ESSAY: In the spirit of its commitment to high-quality, independent research, the Brookings Institution has commissioned works on major topics of public policy by distinguished authors, including Brookings scholars. The Brookings Essay is a multi-platform product aimed to engage readers in open dialogue and debate. The views expressed, however, are solely those of the author. Available in ebook only.
Global Lessons from the Financial Crisis
The financial crisis that began in 2007 in the United States swept the world, producing substantial bank failures and forcing unprecedented state aid for the crippled global financial system. Bringing together three leading financial economists to provide an international perspective, Balancing the Banks draws critical lessons from the causes of the crisis and proposes important regulatory reforms, including sound guidelines for the ways in which distressed banks might be dealt with in the future.
While some recent policy moves go in the right direction, others, the book argues, are not sufficient to prevent another crisis. The authors show the necessity of an adaptive prudential regulatory system that can better address financial innovation. Stressing the numerous and complex challenges faced by politicians, finance professionals, and regulators, and calling for reinforced international coordination (for example, in the treatment of distressed banks), the authors put forth a number of principles to deal with issues regarding the economic incentives of financial institutions, the impact of economic shocks, and the role of political constraints.
Offering a global perspective, Balancing the Banks should be read by anyone concerned with solving the current crisis and preventing another such calamity in the future.