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This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily and more frequent asset prices, and the prices of option contracts, can be used to construct and assess predictions about future prices, their volatility, and their probability distributions.
Stephen Taylor provides a comprehensive introduction to the dynamic behavior of asset prices, relying on finance theory and statistical evidence. He uses stochastic processes to define mathematical models for price dynamics, but with less mathematics than in alternative texts. The key topics covered include random walk tests, trading rules, ARCH models, stochastic volatility models, high-frequency datasets, and the information that option prices imply about volatility and distributions.
Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction is ideal for students of economics, finance, and mathematics who are studying financial econometrics, and will enable researchers to identify and apply appropriate models and methods. It will likewise be a valuable resource for quantitative analysts, fund managers, risk managers, and investors who seek realistic expectations about future asset prices and the risks to which they are exposed.
Findings of a Ten-Nation Survey
This report shares results of a regionwide survey undertaken in late 2007 among over 2,000 students from leading universities across ASEAN member countries. The survey addressed questions on whether youths today consider themselves to be citizens of ASEAN; whether the region's youth are enthusiastic or skeptical about ASEAN; how well the region's youth know ASEAN and its members; and their concerns for the Association and the region. Survey findings indicate a nascent sense of ownership and stake in ASEAN, despite some clear differences in knowledge and opinions on the grouping. It is interesting to note that the students agreed on the importance of economic cooperation and addressing poverty and development needs; and share a desire to know more about the region. Responses from the survey provide a useful source of information for ASEAN policy-makers on promoting awareness about ASEAN and the challenges and opportunities the region faces in pursuing regional integration.
The Entrepreneurs’ Frontier
Nestled in the heart of the Finger Lakes region, Auburn, New York, is home to some of the key figures in our nation’s history. Both William Seward and Harriet Tubman lived in Auburn, as did Martha Coffin Wright, a pioneering figure in the struggle for women’s suffrage. Auburn’s significance to American life, however, goes beyond its role in political and social movements. The seeds of American development were sown and bore fruit in small urban centers like Auburn. The town’s early and rapid success secured its place as a cornerstone of the North American industrial core. Anderson chronicles the story of Auburn and its inhabitants, individuals with the skills and ingenuity to nurture and sustain an economy of unprecedented growth. He describes the early settlers who capitalized on the rich geographic advantages of the area: abundant water power and access to transportation routes. The entrepreneurs and capital that Auburn attracted built it into a thriving community, one that became a center of invention, manufacturing, and finance in the mid-nineteenth century. Just as the high profits and rapid accumulation of wealth allowed the community to prosper and grow, these factors also initiated its decline. Anderson traces Auburn’s momentous rise and gradual decline, illustrating American capitalism in its rawest form as it played out in small towns across the nation.
Changing the Way America Saves
Automatic offers an innovative new way to think about how Americans can save for retirement.
Over the past quarter century, America's pension system has shifted away from defined benefit plans and toward defined contribution savings programs such as 401(k)s and IRAs. There is much to be done to improve the defined contribution system. Many workers fail to participate and those who do often contribute too little, invest the funds poorly, and are not adequately prepared to manage funds while in retirement.
To resolve these problems, the authors propose that employees should be automatically enrolled into a 401(k) plan when they are hired, with the right to opt out, change the amount that they contribute, or change investment choices if they choose. If the employer does not sponsor a 401(k) or similar retirement plan, they would be enrolled in a payroll deduction Automatic IRA. This vision of a transformed defined contribution system incorporates key positive features of defined benefit plans to improve retirement security. Employess contributions would increase over time, their investments would benefit from professional management and rebalancing, and they would receive lifetime income upon retirement. These automatic features will make the 401(k) and similar plans a more effective tool for retirement saving, and they can be extended to the many workers who do not currently have access to an employer plan.
In Automatic, the authors present proposals to implement automatic features in all phases of the 401(k) and in IRAs for workers with no employer plan. They also draw from the experience of countries that have implemented automatic saving structures.
Le Québec et la Catalogne à l'heure du libre-échange et de la Communauté européenne
Les nationalismes catalan, québécois et canadien - Le Québec, ses régions et la décentralisation - Le libre-échange - Le droit international à l'information face aux technologies de communication - Le marketing au Québec - Politique culturelle et gestion de la culture - Autonomie politique et conflit linguistique - Sentiment national et langue - Perspective culturelle.
En tenant compte des perspectives de géographes et de communicologues, tant Français que Québécois, les auteurs présentent la problématique des rapports entre territoires et techniques de communication. Ils analysent ensuite des cas spécifiques d'expérimentation des TIC en France et au Québec (Parthenay, Hiérapolis, UBI, etc.) observés, tour à tour de l'intérieur et de l'extérieur et, finalement, s'interrogent sur la position des villes et des régions dans le développement des autoroutes de l'information.
Global Lessons from the Financial Crisis
The financial crisis that began in 2007 in the United States swept the world, producing substantial bank failures and forcing unprecedented state aid for the crippled global financial system. Bringing together three leading financial economists to provide an international perspective, Balancing the Banks draws critical lessons from the causes of the crisis and proposes important regulatory reforms, including sound guidelines for the ways in which distressed banks might be dealt with in the future.
While some recent policy moves go in the right direction, others, the book argues, are not sufficient to prevent another crisis. The authors show the necessity of an adaptive prudential regulatory system that can better address financial innovation. Stressing the numerous and complex challenges faced by politicians, finance professionals, and regulators, and calling for reinforced international coordination (for example, in the treatment of distressed banks), the authors put forth a number of principles to deal with issues regarding the economic incentives of financial institutions, the impact of economic shocks, and the role of political constraints.
Offering a global perspective, Balancing the Banks should be read by anyone concerned with solving the current crisis and preventing another such calamity in the future.
What's Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It
The past few years have shown that risks in banking can impose significant costs on the economy. Many claim, however, that a safer banking system would require sacrificing lending and economic growth. The Bankers’ New Clothes examines this claim and the narratives used by bankers, politicians, and regulators to rationalize the lack of reform, exposing them as invalid. Anat Admati and Martin Hellwig argue that we can have a safer and healthier banking system without sacrificing any of its benefits, and at essentially no cost to society. They seek to engage the broader public in the debate by cutting through the jargon of banking, clearing the fog of confusion, and presenting the issues in simple and accessible terms.
The Fall and Rise of Central Banking
The crash of 2008 revealed that the world's central banks had failed to offset the financial imbalances that led to the crisis, and lacked the tools to respond effectively. What lessons should central banks learn from the experience, and how, in a global financial system, should cooperation between them be enhanced? Banking on the Future provides a fascinating insider's look into how central banks have evolved and why they are critical to the functioning of market economies. The book asks whether, in light of the recent economic fallout, the central banking model needs radical reform.
Supported by interviews with leading central bankers from around the world, and informed by the latest academic research, Banking on the Future considers such current issues as the place of asset prices and credit growth in anti-inflation policy, the appropriate role for central banks in banking supervision, the ways in which central banks provide liquidity to markets, the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of central banks, the culture and individuals working in these institutions, as well as the particular issues facing emerging markets and Islamic finance. Howard Davies and David Green set out detailed policy recommendations, including a reformulation of monetary policy, better metrics for financial stability, closer links with regulators, and a stronger emphasis on international cooperation.
Exploring a crucial sector of the global economic system, Banking on the Future offers new ideas for restoring financial strength to the foundations of central banking.
A History of the Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Ohio
Not a history of bankruptcy law, Murnane's work is a social and institutional history of the Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Ohio. The work explains the development of the court and the story of the people who worked there and of those who sought refuge in the bankruptcy court, within the context of northern Ohio's changing economy. The story of this particular bankruptcy court also illustrates the historical evolution of bankruptcy as an American institution.