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Prospects for Democracy
While China's economic rise is being watched closely around the world, the country's changing political landscape is intriguing, as well. Forces unleashed by market reforms are profoundly recasting state-society relations. Will the Middle Kingdom transition rapidly, slowly, or not at all to political democracy? In China's Changing Political Landscape, leading experts examine the prospects for democracy in the world's most populous nation. China's political transformation is unlikely to follow a linear path. Possible scenarios include development of democracy as we understand it; democracy with more clearly Chinese characteristics; mounting regime instability due to political and socioeconomic crises; and a modified authoritarianism, perhaps modeled on other Asian examples such as Singapore. Which road China ultimately takes will depend on the interplay of socioeconomic forces, institutional developments, leadership succession, and demographic trends. Cheng Li and his colleagues break down a number of issues in Chinese domestic politics, including changing leadership dynamics; the rise of business elites; increased demand for the rule of law; and shifting civil-military relations. Although the contributors clash on many issues, they do agree on one thing: the political trajectory of this economic powerhouse will have profound implications, not only for 1.3 billion Chinese people, but also for the world as a whole.
Economic Growth, the Environment, and Climate Change
The economic growth of China is clearly one of the defining trends of our time. The world's most populous nation is undergoing a vast transformation that will redefine the global economy. Chinese industrial production has increased tremendously in recent years, and its consumption of resources has necessarily gone way up as well. These developments will have important impacts on economics, business, politics, and environmental conditions throughout the world. In C hina's Dilemma: Economic Growth, the Environment, and Climate Change, an international group of authorities examines the present status and likely future of China's economic rise and its impact on the environment, with particular focus on the all-important topic of global climate change. The first section addresses directly China's recent growth. Specific topics addressed here include the effects on China of the global credit crunch, determinants of growth, and their prospects for the future. Part II addresses China's environmental and climate concerns, including the impact on human health, their role in domestic politics, the health effects of environmental damage, and China's post- Kyoto climate strategy. Part III looks at the impact, and likely trajectory, of energy consumption in China. Contents Part I. Economic Growth: Determinants and Prospects Includes introduction Part II. Impact of Environment Degradation and Climate Change Part III. Energy Use, the Environment, and Future Trends
Beyond Economic Transformation
The rapid emergence and explosive growth of China's middle class have enormous consequences for that nation's domestic future, for the global economy, and for the whole world. In China's Emerging Middle Class, noted scholar Cheng Li and a team of experts focus on the sociopolitical ramifications of the birth and growth of the Chinese middle class over the past two decades.
The contributors, from diverse disciplines and different regions, examine the development and evolution of China's middle class from a variety of analytical perspectives. What is its educational and occupational makeup? Are its members united by a common identity by a shared political vision and worldview? How does the Chinese middle class compare with its counterparts in other countries? The contributors shed light on these and many other issues pertaining to the rapid rise of the middle class in the Middle Kingdom.
Contributors: Jie Chen (Old Dominion University), Deborah Davis (Yale University), Bruce J. Dickson (George Washington University), Geoffrey Gertz (Brookings), Han Sang-Jin (Seoul National University), Hsin-Huang Michael Hsiao (National Taiwan University), Homi Kharas (Brookings), Li Chunling (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences), Jing Lin (University of MarylandCollege Park), Sida Liu (University of Wisconsin Madison), Lu Hanlong (Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences), Joyce Yanyun Man (Peking UniversityLincoln Center), Ethan Michelson (Indiana UniversityBloomington), Qin Chen (Hohai University), Xiaoyan Sun (Beijing Foreign Studies University), Luigi Tomba (Australian National University), Jianying Wang (Yale University), and Zhou Xiaohong (Nanjing University).
Implications for Latin America and the United States
With President Hu Jintao's November 2004 visit to Latin America, China signaled to the rest of the world its growing interest in the region. Many observers welcome this development, highlighting the benefits of increased trade and investment, as well as diplomatic cooperation, for both sides. But other analysts have raised concerns about the relationship's impact on Latin American competitiveness and its implications for U.S. influence in Washington's traditional backyard. In C hina's Expansion into the Western Hemisphere, experts from Latin America, China, and the United States, as well as Europe, analyze the history of this triangular relationship and the motivations of each of the major players. Several chapters focus on China's growing economic ties to the region, including Latin America's role in China's search for energy resources worldwide. Other essays highlight the geopolitical implications of Chinese hemispheric policy and set recent developments in the broader context of China's role in the developing world. Together, they provide an absorbing look at a particularly sensitive aspect of China's emergence as a world power. Contributors include Christopher Alden (London School of Economics), Robert Devlin (ECLAC), Francisco González (Johns HopkinsSAIS), Monica Hirst (Torcuato Di Tella University), Josh Kurlantzick (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Xiang Lanxin (Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva), Luisa Palacios (Barclays), Jiang Shixue (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences), Barbara Stallings (Brown University), Juan Tokatlián (San Andrés University), and Zheng Kai (Fudan University).
A portrait of China’s new economic passion toward Europe. For years China’s international investment interests focused on a search for natural resources in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Recently China’s focus has shifted to Europe as well as the United States, and to new fields as diverse as real estate, energy, hospitality, transportation, and heavy industry. Chinese foreign investment is expected to grow throughout Europe in the years to come. For instance, the financial crisis centered in Greece and the fall of the euro have helped China and some of its corporations create a new partnership within the European Union, working to expand the country’s power through finance and infrastructure. China’s Offensive in Europe studies the trends, sectors, and target countries of Chinese investments in Europe. It looks at cases of outbound investment trajectories and journeys by some key Chinese private and state-owned companies. It also takes a look at European perceptions of China, a country with a very different history and very different traditions from the Western world. Philippe Le Corre and Alain Sepulchre examine how China’s presence in Europe can serve as a benchmark to other developed economies—especially the United States, which is also seeing a rise in Chinese investments.
Speeches of Zheng Bijian 1997-2005
While in the past other emerging powers have used territorial expansion or other forms of aggression in order to insert themselves into the international arena, China is taking a different road. In this timely collection of speeches, Zheng Bijian, one of China's leading thinkers on ideological questions, examines "China's peaceful rise," addressing some of the most complex issues China faces as it emerges into a rapidly changing world order. These speeches reflect Zheng's firm sense that the lessons of history demand that China pursue a stable, peaceful international environment as a first priority. Such a strategy will not only help smooth China's rise it will also translate China's successes into benefits for other countries as well. These speeches are worth reading not only for the strength of their ideas, but also for a greater understanding of the political and policy constraints and opportunities in relations with China. They help us begin to answer the crucial question that informs all these speeches: How should we think about China?
Chinese and American Perspectives
China's path to political reform over the last three decades has been slow, but discourse among Chinese political scientists continues to be vigorous and forward thinking. China's Political Development offers a unique look into the country's evolving political process by combining chapters authored by twelve prominent Chinese political scientists with an extensive commentary on each chapter by an American scholar of the Chinese political system. Each chapter focuses on a major aspect of the development of the Chinese Party-state, encompassing the changing relations among its constituent parts as well as its evolving approaches toward economic gorwth, civil society, grassroots elections, and the intertwined problems of supervision and corruption.
Together, these analyses highlight the history, strategy, policies, and implementation of governance reforms since 1978 and the authors' recommendations for future changes. This extensive work provides the deep background necessary to understand the sociopolitical context and intellectual currents. behind the reform agenda announced at the landmark Third Plenum in 2013. Shedding light through contrasting perspectives, the book provides an overview of the efforts China has directed toward developing good governance, the challenges it faces, and its future direction.
Drivers, Trajectories, and Strategic Implications
China’s anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), the DF-21D, has reached the equivalent of Initial Operational Capability. Although it probably has been deployed in small numbers, additional challenges and tests remain. This study examines the ASBM’s capability and history, showing how the DF-21D meets multiple priorities in Chinese defense modernization and in the national security bureaucracy, as well its implications for the United States. The ASBM’s physical threat to U.S. Navy ships will be determined by the development of associated systems and organizations, which currently limit data fusion and coordination in the complex task of identifying a U.S. aircraft carrier in the open ocean. Still, the ASBM poses a direct threat to the foundations of U.S. power project in Asia and will undermine the U.S. position, unless efforts to counter its political-military effects are taken.
Reassessing Collective Leadership
Chinese politics are at a crossroads as President Xi Jinping amasses personal power and tests the constraints of collective leadership. In the years since he became general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012, Xi Jinping has surprised many people in China and around the world with his bold anti corruption campaign and his aggressive consolidation of power. Given these new developments, we must rethink how we analyze Chinese politics—an urgent task as China now has more influence on the global economy and regional security than at any other time in modern history. Chinese Politics in the Xi Jinping Era examines how the structure and dynamics of party leadership have evolved since the late 1990s and argues that “inner-party democracy”—the concept of collective leadership that emphasizes deal making based on accepted rules and norms—may pave the way for greater transformation within China’s political system. Xi’s legacy will largely depend on whether he encourages or obstructs this trend of political institutionalization in the governance of the world’s most populous and increasingly pluralistic country. Cheng Li also addresses the recruitment and composition of the political elite, a central concern in Chinese politics. China analysts will benefit from the meticulously detailed biographical information of the 376 members of the 18th Central Committee, including tables and charts detailing their family background, education, occupation, career patterns, and mentor-patron ties.
Inside the Making of India's Foreign Policy
A look behind the scenes of some of India’s most critical foreign policy decisions by the country’s former foreign secretary and national security adviser. Every country must make choices about foreign policy and national security. Sometimes those choices turn out to have been correct, other times not. In this insider's account, Shivshankar Menon describes some of the most crucial decisions India has faced during his long career in government—and how key personalities often had to make choices based on incomplete information under the pressure of fast-moving events. Menon either participated directly in or was associated with all the major Indian foreign policy decisions he describes in Choices. These include the 2005–08 U.S.–India nuclear agreement; the first-ever boundary-related agreement between India and China; India's decision not to use overt force against Pakistan in response to the 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai; the 2009 defeat of the Tamil rebellion in Sri Lanka; and India's disavowal of the first-use of nuclear weapons. Menon examines what these choices reveal about India's strategic culture and decisionmaking, its policies toward the use of force, its long-term goals and priorities, and its future behavior. Choices will be of interest to anyone searching for answers to questions about how one of the world's great, rising powers makes its decisions on the world stage, and the difficult choices that sometimes had to be made.