Impressions of the Goh Chok Tong Years in Singapore

23 Bolstering Population Growth: From Babies to Immigrants

265 Bolstering Population Growth: From Babies to Immigrants YAP MUI TENG In the late 1980s, Singapore went where few had dared to tread in population policies. The government, led by then First Deputy Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, announced that Singapore would reverse its highly effective fertility control policy and replace it with a selectively pro-natalist one. This was a bold move since few countries had tried pro-natalism and fewer still had succeeded. The announcement of the new fertility policy was followed soon after by the announcement that the government would relax its immigration policy, another reversal of a long-held approach that admitted only the highly-skilled and entrepreneurial. The years of the Goh Chok Tong administration saw the total population grow rapidly, from just over three million persons in 1990 to more than four million in 2004, an increase of 39 per cent. Over the same period, the resident population, comprising citizens and permanent residents, grew by 27 per cent from about 2.7 million to nearly 3.5 million. As Table 1 shows, the average annual growth rates attained over the period 1990–2000 were 2.8 per cent and 1.8 per cent for the total and resident population respectively. These rates were much higher than those in the 1970s and 1980s, especially the former. The rate of population growth fell sharply to 0.2–1.2 per cent in the last three years of the Goh administration (2002–2004) due mainly to the economic downturn and the exit of the foreign population (shown in Table 1 as“non-residents”). Although not shown in the table, there was also a sharp decline in the late 1990s in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis and economic slowdown and the population growth rate slowed to 0.8 per cent in 1999. Singapore’s population growth rates, at least over much of the duration of the Goh administration, are high by comparison. Countries with population growth rates exceeding 2 per cent include Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia and Papua New Guinea, whereas the growth rates in countries at similar levels of development are generally at 0.5 per cent or lower.1 If the 1990s rates of growth continue, the time it will take for the total population to double itself will be 25 years, and for the resident population 39 years. 23 266 YAP MUITENG Thehighratesof populationgrowthduringtheGohadministrationreflectedthechanges made in the late 1980s to fertility and immigration policies. Further adjustments to these policies were made subsequently but these were relatively less significant in comparison. Population Policies during the GohYears The main policy developments that probably affected population trends during the Goh administration were set before Goh became the prime minister in 1990. On 1 March 1987, when he was still the First Deputy Prime Minister, Goh announced the replacement of the anti-natalist “stop at two (children)” policy with the selectively pro-natalist “have three (children), or more if you can afford it” policy.2 The significance of this development can be better appreciated if one recalls the passion with which the anti-natalist policy had been pursued under the administration of his predecessor, Lee Kuan Yew. Besides a comprehensive family planning programme providing contraceptives, sterilisation and abortion within easy reach of Singaporeans, measures to restrict family size also included social policies such as a lower priority in registration for entry into primary school for children of third and higher birth order, a lower priority in allocation of public housing for families with more than two children, and fiscal and non-financial incentives to undergo sterilisation after two children. A strong promulgator of the strict two-child policy, Lee noted this reversal as one of the“tough, sensitive and vote-losing issues” that Goh and his team had “shown guts” in tackling.3 The new fertility policy was introduced after earlier tinkering with incentives to encourage only highly educated graduates to have more children had proved unpopular. One of these schemes, commonly known as the“graduate mother scheme”, offered priority Table 1. Population Size and Growth Rates, 1970–2004 Number (in thousands) Average Annual Growth (percentages)1 Total Residents Nonresidents Total Residents Nonresidents 1970 2,074.5 2,013.6 — 2.8 — — 1980 2,413.9 2,282.1 — 1.5 1.3 — 1990 3,047.1 2,735.9 311.3 2.3 1.7 9.0 2000 4,027.9 3,273.4 754.5 2.8 1.8 9.3 2001...