Hong Kong's Link to the US Dollar: Origins and Evolution

CHARTS, TABLES AND FIGURES

CHARTS, TABLES AND FIGURES Chapter 1 Chart 1.1 Exchange Rate of the Hong Kong Dollar 7 Chart 1.2 Determinants of the Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Index 8 Chart 1.3 Determinants of the Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Index 10 Chart 1.4 Money and Credit Growth 11 Chart 1.5 Relation between Money Growth and Currency 12 Appreciation/Depreciation Chapter 2 Chart 2.1 Money, Output Indicators, and Prices 18 Chart 2.2 Monetary Determinant Ratios 19 Chart 2.3 Money Supply and Determinant Ratios 21 Chart 2.4 Money Supply and Cash Currency 24 Table 2.1 The Multiple Contraction Process in an Orthodox Banking 30 System — How Intervention Works Table 2.2 The System in Hong Kong — Why Intervention Doesn’t Work 31 Chapter 3 Chart 3.1 Determinants of Hong Kong Exports 39 Chart 3.2 Hong Kong’s Total Exports and Imports 40 Chart 3.3 Index of Money Supply (M1 ) 41 Chart 3.4 Index of Money Supply (M2 ) 42 Chart 3.5 Index of Money Supply (M3 ) 43 Chart 3.6 Index of Total Domestic Loans and Advances 44 Chart 3.7 Hong Kong Credit Cycle in Theory and in Reality 46 Chart 3.8 HK$/US$ Rate and Effective Exchange Rate Index 50 x Charts, Tables and Figures Chapter 4 Chart 4.1 Money and Credit Growth 56 Chart 4.2 The Rise and Fall of the DTCs 58 Chart 4.3 The UK Secondary Banking Crisis and Hong Kong’s DTC 60 Crisis: A Striking Parallel Chart 4.4 Hong Kong GDP and Components (at current prices) 74 Chart 4.5 Hong Kong GDP and Components (at constant prices) 74 Chart 4.6 Haddon-Cave’s Concept of “Automatic Adjustment” 76 — A Post-Mortem Chart 4.7 Characteristics of the Business Cycle 77 Chart 4.8 Outline of the Adjustment Process and Its Application to Two 77 Economies Chart 4.9 Adjustment Mechanism under Orthodox Central Bank System 79 Chart 4.10 “Automatic” Adjustment Mechanism under the Colonial Currency 81 Board System Chart 4.11 The Old System: Conditions for Success 82 Chart 4.12 The Bretton Woods System: USA and Japan 84 Chart 4.13 The Bretton Woods System: Hong Kong 85 Chart 4.14 Breakdown of the Bretton Woods System (1971): USA and Japan 88 Chart 4.15 Where Are We Now? 90 Chart 4.16 Where Next? 91 Chart 4.17 Which is Better? 91 Chapter 5 Table 5.1 Consolidated Balance Sheets for the Current Hong Kong 109 Monetary System Figure 5.1 A Certificate of Indebtedness 110 Table 5.2 Annotated Balance Sheets of the Hong Kong Banking System 112 Table 5.3 Proposed Scheme 1 114 Table 5.4 Proposed Scheme 2A 118 Table 5.5 Proposed Scheme 2B 122 Chart 5.1 Money Supply and Monetary Determinant Ratios (Unadjusted) 123 Chart 5.2 Monetary Determinant Ratios (Adjusted) 124 Chapter 7 Chart 7.1 HK$/US$ Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Differentials 172 Chart 7.2 Growth of HK$M3 and Total M3 177 Chart 7.3 Money and Credit Growth 178 Chapter 8 Chart 8.1 The Monetary Multipliers 187 Chart 8.2 The Monetary Determinant Ratios (for HK$M1 ) 187 Chart 8.3 Bank Spreads under the Interest Rate Agreement 193 xi Charts, Tables and Figures xi Chapter 9 Chart 9.1 Prices, Exchange Rate and Competitiveness vs. USA 205 Chart 9.2 Prices, Exchange Rate and Competitiveness vs. OECD 207 Chart 9.3 Balance of Payments 209 Chart 9.4 HK$–US$ Interest Rate Differentials and Foreign Exchange 212 Rate vs. Official Parity Chart 9.5 The Monetary Multipliers 214 Chart 9.6 Monetary Determinant Ratios (for HK$M2 ) 215 Chapter 10 Chart 10.1 Money, Interest Rates, Output and Prices in Switzerland, 223 1975–84 Chapter 11 Chart 11.1 HK$/US$ Exchange Rate and Interest Differentials 237 (October 1983–September 1988) Chart 11.2 Money, Interest Rates, Trade and Prices 240 Chapter 12 Chart 12.1 Overnight HK$ and US$ Interest Rates 251 Chart 12.2 HK$/US$ Exchange Rate (Jan. 1988–Dec. 1989) 251 Chart 12.3 HK$ and US$ Interest Rate Differentials 253 Chart 12.4 HK$/US$ Exchange Rate (Dec. 1983–Jan. 1984) 253 Table 12.1 Monetary Multipliers for Hong Kong from July 1988 255 Table 12.2 Record of Interventions by the Exchange Fund since July 1988 255 Chapter 13...