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8 Care of the Elderly in One-child Families in China: Issues and Measures Shixun Gui The mainlan d o f Chin a ha s th e larges t numbe r o f elderl y o f Chines e origi n than anywher e els e i n th e world . I t was estimate d that , a t th e en d o f 1999 , the population age d 65 or above reached 92 510 000 and accounted fo r 7.6 % of the total population (Stat e Statistical Bureau 2000). There will be extremel y prominent socia l issues in Chin a i n th e future — ho w t o take good car e of a large number o f elderly people i n one-chil d families . In Septembe r 1980 , th e Centra l Committe e o f th e Communis t Part y o f China pointe d ou t t o al l its members an d th e Communis t Yout h League , i n an open letter regarding the control of China's population, tha t the one-chil d policy would lea d t o car e problem s fo r olde r person s i n 4 0 years ' tim e — a problem whic h alread y existe d i n man y countrie s an d neede d solving , fo r maybe no one would be available to care for many of the elderly at that time. This chapter mainl y studies the influences o f the one-child policy in relatio n to th e car e o f th e elderl y i n Chin a i n th e future , an d discusse s th e policie s and measure s necessar y fo r a n appropriat e solution . It is well known tha t th e governmen t o f Chin a ha s implemente d a one child polic y aroun d th e whol e country , excep t fo r som e less-populate d minority regions , sinc e 1980 , in orde r t o control th e phenomenal growt h o f the population an d harmonize th e development o f population, th e economy , society and environment. Th e total number o f persons applying for one-chil d certificates was 28 17 0 000 in 198 4 (Centre of China Population Informatio n 116฀SHIXUN ฀GUI฀ 1985) and 53 370 000 (excludin g those children above 1 6 in 1997 ) (Nationa l Family Plannin g Commissio n 1998) . The autho r estimate s that , b y th e yea r 2010, the accumulative tota l of children for whom one-child certificates wer e applied approache s 10 0 millio n whil e tha t o f thei r parent s wil l reac h 20 0 million. I n Shanghai, the number o f children fo r whom one-chil d certificate s were applie d wa s only 366 700 in 1980 ; this number increase d t o 1 665 70 0 (excluding thos e abov e 16 ) i n 199 7 (Shangha i Statistica l Burea u 1998 ) and , by th e author' s estimation , wil l be 2 700 000 by th e year 2010 . What wil l be th e proportio n o f 'one-chil d elderly ' i n societ y i n th e firs t half of the twenty-first century ? Table 1 indicates that the percentage of women aged from 2 2 to 33 with only one living child was more than 30% of the tota l of th e sam e ag e group , accordin g t o th e 199 0 populatio n census . Providin g those one-chil d wome n abov e 3 0 year s ol d wil l kee p th e numbe r o f thei r children i n thei r whole lifetim e withi n th e current birth-control policy , 30% of 60-year-ol d wome n i n 201 7 o r 75-year-ol d wome n i n 203 2 wil l b e one child elderl y i n China . Becaus e o f its relativel y hig h level s o f economi c an d social development , hig h urbanizatio n level , an d th e universall y advocate d one-child polic y wit h exceptio n fo r thos...

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