Myanmar's Transition: Openings, Obstacles and Opportunities

2. White Elephants and Black Swans: Thoughts on Myanmar’s Recent History and Possible Futures

2 WHITE ELEPHANTS AND BLACK SWANS Thoughts on Myanmar’s Recent History and Possible Futures Thant Myint-U George Orwell in Shooting an Elephant said that in Myanmar “a story always sounds clear enough at a distance, but the nearer you get to the scene of events the vaguer it becomes”. As an historian by training, I am usually fairly reluctant to predict things. But today I am even more reluctant to predict very much, because Myanmar’s future is less predictable now — even the very immediate future — than at any time since September 1988, when, as is well known, mass popular demonstrations nearly ended decades of military or military-backed dictatorship. Most people in this room are also familiar with the events of the past several months. We had elections in November 2010, the first multi-party elections in over twenty years, elections that were extremely controversial, with allegations of widespread vote fraud, particularly in Yangon. These were elections held under a new constitution, which reserves 25 per cent of the seats in national and local-level legislatures to the armed forces, as well as control 24 Thant Myint-U of security-related ministries. They were also elections in which the juntabacked party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party or USDP, enjoyed a huge institutional and financial advantage, and in which many of the new and much smaller opposition parties were able to contest only a limited number of constituencies, in large part because they simply did not have the resources to contest more. And they were elections that the National League for Democracy (NLD), headed by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, chose to boycott as inherently not free and not fair, and taking place under a constitution the NLD did not accept. Since those elections, which led to the USDP winning a clear majority of seats, not only in the national legislature but in nearly all the local — State and Regional — legislatures as well, a number of things have happened. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi herself was released from several years under house-arrest, the new legislatures were convened in January 2011, and a new government was formed, taking office in March 2011, with retired General Thein Sein as the new president. About the same time, Senior General Than Shwe dissolved the old junta, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC); appointed a new and much younger commander-in-chief of the armed forces; and removed himself from all public office. Some will argue that, politically at least, not much has actually changed. General Than Shwe may still, some say, be pulling the strings from behind the façade of these new institutions, and even if he is not, that it is army men or ex-army men who remain in key positions, ruling in the same way as before. Others, however, will say that the country has taken at least its first tentative steps towards representative government: that multi-party elections, however flawed, have been held; that parliamentary debates, however restricted, have taken place; that whilst there remain ex-army men in key positions, there are as well new civilian faces in the cabinet; and that members of ethnic minority-based opposition parties have even been included in regional-level administrations. They will point as well to the policy speeches that President U Thein Sein has made since taking office, in which he has called for economic reform, political reconciliation, a strengthening of democratic practices, an end to ethnic conflict, an end to corruption, and for major improvements in the areas of health and education and environmental protection. It is still too early to say where all this is headed. Even in hindsight, looking back at democratic transitions elsewhere, it is very difficult to say which early steps were important and in what way. Myanmar has certainly White Elephants and Black Swans 25 not embarked on a course that will lead automatically and irrevocably to democracy: that is for certain. But I would also suggest that Myanmar is at a clear watershed, that there is no turning back, and that what happens over the coming months may be critical in determining the nature of Burmese politics and society for many years to come. What is taking shape today is a much more fractured system of power than what existed before — with a powerful presidency distinct from the army, as well as a ruling party leadership...