The Population of Singapore (Third Edition)

8. Fertility Trends and Differentials

152 8 Fertility Trends and Differentials In Singapore there was the emergence of government concern at various times on certain aspects of the demography of the country and the subsequent implementation of government measures that had a direct or indirect impact on the future course of population trends. In the area of fertility, we have included the next two chapters to present a detailed account of government measures first introduced in the mid-1960s to encourage a reduction in fertility and the recent adjustment of the antinatalist policy to encourage more births. The effect of government measures will be touched upon in this chapter on fertility trends and differentials. A general survey of fertility trends up to 1946 and a more thorough appraisal for the post-war period when comprehensive data became available will be presented. The complete absence of vital statistics make it impossible to cover the period prior to 1878, and even the information published during the first few decades after this period is grossly lacking in detail and reliability. The analysis of fertility differentials during the post-war period will be confined to the three main races who display marked differences explainable in terms of their divergent social, cultural, and economic development. GENERAL FERTILITY TRENDS In examining the general trends in fertility, we can go as far back as 1878 when birth statistics from the vital registration system were first made available. Even so, the births for the pre-war years were not tabulated according to the age of mothers, and hence the superior fertility indices such as the gross reproduction rate (GRR) and the total fertility rate (TFR) cannot be calculated. What we can derive is the crude birth rate defined as the number of births per thousand population. In utilising the statistics, we have also decided to present the births and the computed crude birth rate in Table 8.1 in terms of five-year periods in Fertility Trends and Differentials 153 order to remove the somewhat erratic annual fluctuations and to enable us to focus our attention on the long-term movements. The population denominator adopted to calculate the rates refers to the average of the five mid-year populations in each given period. TABLE 8.1 Annual Average Births and Crude Birth Rate, 1876–2010 Period Annual Average Births Crude Birth Rate 1878–80 835 6.5 1881–85 2,201 15.0 1886–90 2,770 16.4 1891–95 3,310 17.3 1896–00 3,835 17.1 1901–05 5,113 21.2 1906–10 6,051 22.3 1911–15 7,693 23.9 1916–20 9,819 26.5 1921–25 13,418 29.5 1926–30 18,991 34.3 1931–35 22,280 40.5 1936–40 31,643 45.9 1941–45 29,897 36.5 1946–50 43,738 44.8 1951–55 53,693 47.8 1956–60 61,877 41.0 1961–65 58,476 33.4 1966–70 48,595 24.2 1971–75 45,650 20.8 1976–80 40,517 17.2 1981–85 41,906 16.8 1986–90 46,753 17.3 1991–95 49,386 15.1 1996–00 45,981 11.9 2001–05 38,872 9.2 2006–10 39,034 10.7 154 POPULATION OF SINGAPORE The movement in the annual average number of births during the sixty-year period before World War II was clearly upwards without any break. Ignoring the statistics for the first period 1878–80, which were not reliable, the average number of births rose steadily from 2,201 in 1981–85 to 9,819 in 1916–20 and then rapidly to 31,643 in 1936–40. Except for a dip in 1896–1900, the crude birth rate also experienced a similar long-term trend; it went up very slowly from 15.0 in 1881–85 to 26.5 in 1916–20, and then relatively faster to reach the high of 45.9 in 1936–40. The continuous uptrend in the crude birth rate in Singapore from an initially low level seems to be in direct contrast to the experience of most European countries when the trend during the same period was predominantly downward from an initially high level.1 But, while the downward movement in these countries was the result of a genuine fall in fertility, the upward trend in Singapore was caused not so...