The Population of Singapore (Third Edition)

5. Mortality Trends and Differentials

81 5 Mortality Trends and Differentials The size and structure of the population at any given time are determined by the interaction of migration, mortality and fertility in the immediate past. While a previous chapter has dealt with migration, this chapter will be devoted to a discussion of mortality trends and differentials among the major races. A general survey of mortality trends from the late 1870s, when death statistics were first made available, will be presented first, followed by a more thorough analysis for the years after World War II.An attempt will also be made to examine the changing position regarding differentials in mortality among the three main races. GENERAL MORTALITY TRENDS In examining the long-term mortality trends we ought to be careful in interpreting the death statistics for the early years because they were probably subject to the progressive improvement in the vital registration system. The doubtful accuracy of population estimates used in the computation of the death rates may cast further doubt on the reliability of these rates. Another problem encountered in the analysis of mortality trends is that the annual death statistics of the early period were affected by violent fluctuations resulting from sporadic epidemics and frequent external displacement and replacement of the population caused by local economic depressions and booms. In view of these difficulties, the figures will be presented in terms of quinquennial years, which will enable us to trace the general direction of mortality trends. In Table 5.1 are given the figures pertaining to the annual average deaths and the crude death rates for quinquennial years from 1878 onwards. The population denominator employed in the computation of the crude death rate is taken as the average of the five mid-year populations in each given five-year 82 POPULATION OF SINGAPORE period. An examination of the rates shows that they passed through certain fairly noticeable phases. The first phase covers the various five-year periods in the nineteenth century during which the crude death rate showed no clear signs of declining, generally fluctuating between the level of 20 and 40 per thousand population. There are grounds for suggesting that the rise in the late 1880s was engendered by an improvement in the registration of deaths and did not necessarily reflect an TABLE 5.1 Annual Average Deaths and Crude Death Rates, 1878–2010 Period Annual Average Deaths Crude Death Rate 1878–80 3,095 23.9 1881–85 4,818 32.9 1886–90 6,278 37.3 1891–95 6,771 35.4 1896–00 8,847 39.4 1901–05 11,349 47.1 1906–10 11,721 43.1 1911–15 12,078 37.6 1916–20 13,023 35.2 1921–25 13,206 29.1 1926–30 16,031 29.0 1931–35 12,722 23.1 1936–40 14,787 21.5 1941–45 29,166 35.6 1946–50 12,733 13.0 1951–55 11,472 9.6 1956–60 10,369 6.9 1961–65 10,208 5.7 1966–70 10,578 5.3 1971–75 11,578 5.3 1976–80 12,128 5.2 1981–85 13,118 5.1 1986–90 13,529 4.7 1991–95 14,638 4.5 1996–00 15,552 4.0 2001–05 15,860 3.8 2006–10 17,093 3.0 Mortality Trends and Differentials 83 increase in the actual level of mortality. The exceptionally heavy mortality, as underlined by the high death rate, may be attributed to bad housing, insanitary surroundings, malnutrition, inadequate medical facilities, and unhealthy superstitious practices. The second phase covers the first four decades of the twentieth century during which time a predominantly downward trend in the crude death rate became apparent. From the very beginning of this period, a continuous and marked decline in the crude death rate was noticeable, but the extent of reduction seemed to vary considerably from one period to another. Towards the end of this phase, the rate was brought down to a moderate level of 21.5 per thousand population in 1936–40, slightly less than half of what it was in the beginning. The mortality decline, as reflected by the downtrend in the rate, might be attributed to advances in medical science and the efforts of the health authorities towards constant improvement in hygiene and sanitation by which a wide range of infectious and epidemic diseases like...