Conjunctures and Continuities in Southeast Asian Politics

9. Conclusion: Conjunctures and Continuities in Southeast Asia

9 CONCLUSION Conjunctures and Continuities in Southeast Asia N. Ganesan The case studies from Southeast Asia examined in this book appear to indicate that there have been a large number of developments that can be considered critical conjunctures in the last two decades or so. The country experts that were selected for this project obviously appear to think so and go on to offer compelling reasons on why particular events constitute the equivalent of conjunctures. In line with the requirements of the project, authors were tasked to trace antecedent conditions prior to the occurrence of a conjuncture. Similarly, they were then required to describe the changes that had been brought about by the said conjuncture. Particularly important in this regard is the appearance of contingent conditions that allow for the unfolding of various possibilities. Similarly, authors were also tasked to identify how a chosen course of action resulted in path-dependent outcomes that were subsequently replicated and acquired a certain trajectory that then became embedded over time. Other important questions pertain to the types of triggers for the conjuncture and the importance of structural 218 N. Ganesan and agency reasons for the path-dependent consequences. This concluding chapter ends the book with a discussion of broader theoretical concerns and trends that the book has highlighted. BROADER TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS There are a number of important theoretical considerations that arise from these case studies. One of the major ones would be whether a conjuncture was made possible by external developments and if so whether the nature of such a development was broad-based or not. The preliminary evidence suggests that the Asian financial crisis served just such a function and was responsible for the downfall of the Soeharto regime in Indonesia and the meteoric rise of Thaksin Shinawatra in Thailand. Both countries were severely affected by the crisis and the Indonesian and Thai case studies indicate how post-crisis developments eventually led to the unfolding of a conjuncture. It may be remembered that both countries were recipients of international financial assistance made available by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund that came with conditionalities that included broad structural changes to the economy. In the Indonesian case, the structural economic reforms mandated by international donor agencies resulted in food riots and political violence that eventually unseated the Soeharto regime. And Habibie’s decision to take the democratic route after the conjuncture led in turn to pathdependent developments. In the case of Thailand, Thaksin, who was relatively insulated from the crisis, was able to take advantage of his immensely disproportionate wealth and cobble together a populist political party with tremendous nationalist appeal. The introduction of populist policies that were attractive to the rural poor ensconced his appeal and subsequent political consolidation through the strengthening of his Thai Rak Thai party. His determination to create a predominant political party that aggregated the unstructured party system in Thailand also enabled significant structural change in the local political landscape that displaced the traditional elite from power. In fact his power was such a threat that the only way to dislodge him was through extra-constitutional means. The popularity of Thaksin’s party and policies inspired a successor party — Palang Prachachorn (People Power Party) — that was banned by the courts as well. The two Prime Ministers who led the post-Thaksin government — Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat — were also Conclusion 219 forced to resign. The Thai conjuncture led to the formation of two social movements at either end of the political spectrum — the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD, Yellow Shirts) that represented the traditional establishment and the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD, Red Shirts). The tensions unleashed by the conjuncture were so significant that the stalemate was eventually resolved through the use of force in April and May 2010. Nonetheless the structural problems attendant on Thailand’s political economy have neither abated nor been resolved by the violence. In this regard, Thaksin’s actions will have lasting consequences for national politics and the new political culture that emerges from it. The unwillingness of the Democrat-led Abhisit government to hold an early election was understandable since his parliamentary majority was only obtained through the defection of a pro-Thaksin faction in parliament. And the Pheu Thai Party’s Yingluck Shinawatra scored an astounding victory in the 2011 polls returning Thaksin supporters and sympathizers to power with all the attendant dangers...