ASEAN-Russia: Foundations and Future Prospects

Russia in Southeast Asia: A New "Asian Moment"?

45 RUSSIA IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: A NEW “ASIAN MOMENT”? Astrid S. Tuminez1 and Mark Hong2 INTRODUCTION Russia’s role as a power in Asia has seen different iterations over time. Stretching geographically across the north of Eurasia, Russia has always been caught between the influences of East and West, with its own identity and relationships straddling both spheres. Its interactions with East and West show tremendous influence upon both European and Asian history. The Russian factor in European history brings to mind such moments as Peter the Great’s victory over Sweden, Tsar Alexander I’s defeat of Napoleon’s army in 1812, the Soviet routing of Hitler’s forces during World War II, the Cold War confrontation across Eastern and Western Europe, and NATO and EU expansion to include the former USSR’s sphere of influence. Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has occupied a more diminished role overall in Europe, yet it is also undeniable that Russia remains a key player in arms control, energy security, and conflict management in the region. On the Asian side of the equation, moments that stand out include the Mongol invasion of, and rule over, ancient Rus’; Russia’s expansion across Siberia and Central Asia; the Russo-Japanese war of 1904–05; Russia’s foray into China, Manchuria and Korea; the “Great Game” between Britain and Russia in Afghanistan; the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan; Soviet support for 46 Astrid S. Tuminez and Mark Hong India and Vietnam during the Cold War; the Sino-Soviet conflict; and the Soviet Union’s (and later, Russia’s) relatively low profile and influence in the Southeast Asian region. Historically, Russia has been a stronger player in Europe than in Asia, with Russian elites traditionally using Europe rather than Asia as a point of reference for Russia’s evolution and role as a great power. In Asia, Russia has had many difficult moments, particularly in the twentieth century. However, after the end of the Cold War, a new chapter may have opened in Russia’s interaction with Asia and its role in the region. At the moment, China and the United States remain the leading powers in Asia, but Russia’s prominence and power in the region is growing and has more room to grow. For example, Russia has become embedded more deeply than ever before in Asian regional organizations. It has become a member of, and a participant in, the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Regional Forum (ARF), the Russia-ASEAN Dialogue, the Asia-Europe Summit (ASEM), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation grouping (APEC), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the East Asia Summit (EAS) and others. In addition, Russian trade with Asia is growing. Energy supplies from Siberia have become as important to China, Japan and South Korea as Russian gas supplies to Europe. At this juncture, Russia is in a position to rethink comprehensively its role as an Asia-Pacific power. If Russian policy-makers forge a consensus among themselves and make a sustained and concerted effort, in the next decade Russia could create for itself a viable bridging role as a Eurasian power, linking the continents of Asia and Europe via railways, highways, energy connections, maritime sea routes across the Arctic, and economic, political and security dialogues. Although there is a larger context for Russian power and diplomacy in Asia in the twenty-first century, this paper will focus more on Russia in Southeast Asia. RUSSIA’S ASIAN MOMENTS This paper will use the term “Asian moments” to describe various important junctures in Russia’s engagement with Asia. Most of the moments cited below have been marked by humiliation e.g., Russia’s defeat by Imperial Japan during the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–05. This does not imply that humiliation is the only feature of Russia’s relations with Asia. Rather, Russia’s history in Asia has been fraught with complexity and difficulty. This context is important for understanding why Russia’s evolving relationship Russia in Southeast Asia: A New “Asian Moment”? 47 with Southeast Asia in the past decade and a half may mark a new, different and more hopeful Asian moment for Russia. EARLY ASIAN MOMENTS The first encounter between the early Russians of the Kievan State with Asia occurred when the Mongols swept across Asia into Eastern and Southern Europe in the thirteenth century. Later, after the collapse of the Mongol Empire (1206–1324), tsarist...