Bangkok, May 2010: Perspectives on a Divided Thailand

17. Thai Foreign Policy in Crisis: From Partner to Problem

Thai฀Foreign฀Policy฀in฀Crisis:฀From฀Partner฀to฀Problem 199 17 THAI฀FOREIGN฀POLICY฀IN฀CRISIS From฀Partner฀to฀Problem Ann Marie Murphy Thailand has long been famous for its adroit diplomacy. King Chulalongkorn’s consummate balancing of European powers is often credited for Thailand’s ability to retain its independence while the rest of Southeast Asia succumbed to colonialism. Skillful diplomacy in the immediate post-Second World War era helped Thailand to avoid occupation and the payment of reparations, the fate of other Axis cobelligerents . Following the communist victories in Indochina, Thailand avoided the retribution normally suffered by losing states after their abandonment by a great power ally by forging an entente with its erstwhile adversary, China. At crucial historical junctures, the ability of Thai leaders to discern changing trends in global politics and shift their country’s policy accordingly has been crucial to safeguarding the Thai nation. Today, Thailand’s proud foreign policy legacy lies in tatters. The political crisis ongoing since the September 2006 coup against Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has had deleterious effects on the country’s relations with the outside world. At the most basic level, images broadcast 17฀BangkokIT.indd฀฀฀199 10/3/11฀฀฀1:48:21฀PM Ann฀Marie฀Murphy 200 around the world of massive street demonstrations by colour-coded protestors and the violence associated with their suppression has forced the international community to reassess long-held perceptions of Thailand as a socially stable, economically prosperous destination for foreign investment and tourists. Pivotal events in the crisis directly affected foreigners in a negative way. The take-over of Suvarnabhumi airport by the Yellow Shirts stranded tens of thousands of tourists and the attack on the ASEAN Summit meetings in Pattaya threatened foreign dignitaries. The 2010 Red Shirt demonstrations in central Bangkok forced many embassies to evacuate non-essential staff, to issue travel advisories, and ultimately to close, while the violence associated with the demonstrators’ dispersal saw two foreign journalists killed. As its domestic politics spills over into international affairs, Thailand, long viewed as mainland Southeast Asia’s pivotal state, has morphed into a problem state. The crisis has also politicized Thai foreign policy. Thaksin’s mobilization of his supporters from exile blurs the lines between foreign and domestic affairs. Clausewitz’s dictum that “war is merely the continuation of politics by other means” might aptly be paraphrased as “diplomacy is merely the continuation of politics in foreign arenas” to describe significant aspects of Thai foreign policy today. Foreign policy is increasingly used as a weapon in Thailand’s domestic political battle as each side seeks external support and legitimacy to bolster its position.1 The polarization of Thai politics and its extension into foreign policy have complicated the task of engaging Thailand for other members of the international community. Thailand’s long-standing outward economic orientation and its status as a regional hub for international institutions, non-governmental organizations, and diplomatic missions mean that many foreigners have interests in the country to protect. In a divided polity in which both sides tend to view actions by foreign countries in zero-sum terms, however, maintaining an even-handed approach to Thailand is increasingly difficult. With the Red Shirts having called for international mediation of Thailand’s political crisis and the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva adamantly opposed to it, external actors are increasingly dragged into Thailand’s political crisis. This essay discusses in greater detail the impact of Thailand’s crisis on its foreign policy and the challenges that the crisis creates for the international community. A concluding section argues that those who hope for an early return of statesmanship to Thai diplomacy are likely 17฀BangkokIT.indd฀฀฀200 10/3/11฀฀฀1:48:22฀PM Thai฀Foreign฀Policy฀in฀Crisis:฀From฀Partner฀to฀Problem 201 to be disappointed. Domestic political and social cohesion provide the basis for a country’s statecraft. Until Thailand puts its domestic house in order, Thailand’s foreign policy is likely to remain in crisis. THE฀IMPACT฀OF฀THE฀CRISIS฀ON฀THAI฀FOREIGN฀POLICY:฀ NEGLECT,฀SPILLOVER,฀AND฀POLITICIZATION฀ Neglect฀and฀Spillover The most fundamental impact of the political crisis in Thailand has been a concern with domestic affairs at the expense of foreign policy. This preoccupation has taken a number of forms, each with different effects for Thailand and external actors. The cancellation of foreign trips — such as Prime Minister Abhisit’s decision...