ASEAN-U.S. Relations: What Are the Talking Points?

12. Conclusion

122 12 CONCLUSION Pavin Chachavalpongpun In July 2010, the ASEAN Studies Centre of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies organized a workshop on ASEAN-United States relations. The workshop entertained lively discussions on topics related to the overall theme — what are the talking points? In the first session, on political cooperation, the issue of the South China Sea dominated the discussion. Here are some of the comments and questions: • The United States has a major stake in the region’s peace and stability. But it has no clear policy on the South China Sea. So far, Washington has seemed to adopt a non-interference policy with regard to the territorial dispute in the South China Sea. Can the United States really stay out of the current conflict when, in fact, the conflict may pose a threat to its interest in the region? The United States has over the years forged a close military alliance with certain members of ASEAN through a series of military exercises. Will such exercises permit the United States to play a role in the South China Sea? U.S. Defence Minister Robert Gates once said that the United States was willing to Conclusion 123 help countries in the region to step up their naval capacity and to support them in preventing the tension in the South China Sea from developing into a real threat. • China has never had a well-defined policy with regard to the South China Sea. But this ambiguity is beneficial for China as it negotiates with other claimants. • The strength of the U.S. Navy peaked during the Cold War, but has gradually declined since. This coincided with the modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China. In the meantime, Southeast Asia has increasingly become a “vulnerable flashpoint” as maritime terrorism continues to challenge regional peace and security. How will the United States and rising China use their available resources to cope with that threat? • Has the U.S. presence in Southeast Asia been used to counter China’s military modernization? A Chinese scholar raised this question: What would be the United States’ option in view of China’s increasingly modernized army/navy? He also commented that China’s military rise was a natural phenomenon, after long years of economic growth. Moreover, the shift in the balance of power in the region seems to be in China’s favour. China has come to fill the leadership vacuum. • A Singaporean commentator agreed with the above assertion, emphasizing that it would not be in Southeast Asia’s interest to adopt an antagonistic policy towards China. In return, China’s military modernization would at a certain level encourage leaders in Beijing to open up their policy, making it more transparent, in order to weaken the image of China’s threat. • ASEAN’s Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM), a platform that will also include the involvement of the United States, represents another alternative for ASEAN to engage with outside powers. But participants in the workshop mostly agreed that while ADMM may not have a fixed agenda and will only 124 Pavin Chachavalpongpun discuss issues deemed “necessary for the day”, it provides a venue for country participants to meet on a regular basis. • Participants engaged in a debate on what constituted China’s core interests. They asked, “Has China really made the territorial claim over the South China Sea part of protecting its core interests?” While other core interests are obvious, including Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang, claiming sovereignty over the South China Sea has remained largely obscure. If China is willing to use force in the case of the South China Sea in order to protect its so-called core interest, then China will be breaching the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea which it signed with ASEAN in 2002. • One participant from China clarified that China has never made the South China Sea a part of its core interests. Whatever the Chinese media (Xinhua) reported has never been confirmed by the state authority. In reality, China is keen to cooperate with the United States, especially on the South China Sea issue. • Bo Zhiyue of the East Asia Institute asserted that Deng Xiaoping always believed that sovereignty was non-negotiable. But Bo asked, “What was the border of Chinese sovereignty?” Therefore, while China may appear to seek cooperation with other claimants on joint development of the territory in dispute...