By Design or Accident: Reflections on Asian Security

19. Pakistan Faces a Gathering Storm

19 Pakistan Faces a Gathering Storm Since 9/11 Pakistan has become so much a part of the global security grid that adverse developments there can send shock waves through the international system. Sadly, this proud and attractive country with much potential has become one of the main centres of international terrorism and extremism and has been drifting towards increased instability. There are no easy options available to arrest these trends. Much of the remnants of Al Qaeda, including Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, are believed to be hiding in the remote tribal areas of Pakistan where they have established a safe haven. They are reported to have regrouped, become stronger and acquired greater ability to plan attacks against targets abroad than anytime since 2001. There are also a host of home-grown Pakistani extremist Islamic organizations, some of which, used in the past by the Pakistani state to fight the Indians in Kashmir, have now turned against their patron. Further, the Pashtun belt of Pakistan is widely believed to be a base area for the recruitment and training of neo-Taleban fighters waging war against NATO forces and the government of President Hamid Karzai across the border in Afghanistan. As NATO 78 By Design or Accident forces incur more casualties in Afghanistan at the hands of the neo-Taleban, pressure seems to be mounting in Washington for some kind of action against the sanctuaries in Pakistan. Meanwhile anti-Americanism has grown and support for President Pervez Musharraf among the people has plummeted. The Pakistani state’s writ in the tribal areas, weak even in better times, has deteriorated. The bloody Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) affair showed the confidence and willingness of the militants to take on the state even in the capital Islamabad. Its aftermath has been marked by increased unrest in the Pashtun belt and a spate of suicide bombings in the country.An embattled President Musharraf has vowed to take on and destroy the monster of extremism in the country. But is he really able to do so after it has grown to such proportions? How has Pakistan allowed itself to become a hotbed of terrorism and extremism, even though, in the overall population of the country, the extremists remain a minority? Part of the answer lies in the proxy war waged by America, Pakistan and SaudiArabia in the 1980s against the Soviets inAfghanistan by recruiting, training and supporting scores of thousands of Muslim holy warriors for that conflict. In those days, Islamic extremism was seen as a worthy and potent weapon against godless communism. Pakistan was an active and keen participant in that enterprise because the presence on its western border of the army of the Soviet Union, then seen to be allied to Pakistan’s bitter adversary on its east, India, was an anathema to Islamabad. However, it is not the whole answer. Another important dimension is that the Pakistani state, and in particular the Pakistan Faces a Gathering Storm 79 military and the Inter Services Intelligence, has a history of riding the tiger of extremism to advance the state’s domestic and external political interests, especially since the time of President Zia ul-Haq. This has been well documented, including by Pakistani writers (see for instance Husain Haqqani’s book Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military). In addition to the anti-Soviet crusade in Afghanistan, such a policy could be seen in helping the Taleban, many recruited from the madrasahs of the Pashtun belt in Pakistan, to come to power in Afghanistan in the post-Soviet phase and in the support for Pakistan-based jihadi groups engaged in the insurgency in the Indian part of Kashmir. The enmity with India could have been an important motivation behind these policies: externally, they have been seen as suitable ripostes to perceived Indian designs in the neighbourhood of Pakistan while internally they served to reinforce Pakistan’s separate Islamic identity. Now the tiger looks more ferocious while the state looks more frayed and weaker than before. That this increasingly troubled state also possesses nuclear weapons naturally conjures up nightmarish scenarios in the international community. Is the state now able to dismount from the tiger and take decisive action against Al Qaeda and other extremists? At stake is nothing less than peace and stability in Pakistan which is a prerequisite for the economic progress that the Pakistani people aspire to. At stake also...