By Design or Accident: Reflections on Asian Security

15. US Bungling Makes Iraq a Problem for the World

15 US Bungling Makes Iraq a Problem for the World It is plain for all to see that America’s Iraq war has not gone the way the White House had expected. The political fall out from the failure to find any weapons of mass destruction (WMD) may in the end prove to be the lesser of the headaches for the United States. The Bush Administration probably believed, when it went to war, that Saddam Hussein must have hidden his WMD, not an unreasonable assumption in view of the Iraqi leader’s character. However, the war was not just about WMD, though that was easier to sell to the US public. It was also supposed to change the strategic landscape in the Middle East by building in Iraq a model for the region. On hindsight, these were audaciously ambitious, even utopian goals. In the debates preceding the war, there were some sober and respected voices who questioned the wisdom of America’ course. They did produce a certain unease in me at the time about whether the old and new conservatives in the Bush regime had really got it right. However, I dismissed these qualms in the belief that the US Administration probably knew best, since it had many clever people with access to a wide array of intelligence. Surely, I thought, America would have learnt from the US Bungling Makes Iraq a Problem 63 Vietnam experience, where the “best and brightest” had also misjudged the enormity of the tasks they would face. Alas, it turns out that a new generation has to relearn the same lessons, even if Iraq’s parallels with Vietnam should not be overdrawn. Now the US has to fight a guerilla war it did not expect and was not prepared for. If it had been anticipated, the calculus of loss and gain could well have dictated a different course from the outset. It is not easy for a conventional army to shift to counterinsurgency warfare in an alien country. It is especially difficult for the American army to do so because it has no recent experience or expertise in counter-insurgency. Guerillas in the region cannot be defeated without good tactical human intelligence and the requisite Arab-language capabilities that go with that. But Iraq is no longer just an American burden; it has become a problem for the world. A war that was meant to weaken radicalism and deliver a blow to international terrorism appears, at least for now, to have given a boost to both. Though supporters of the old regime still form the bulk of the resistance in Iraq, Islamic radicals from the surrounding region, including some linked to Al Qaeda, have been pouring in to fight Americans. This is a pity because Al Qaeda was otherwise suffering setbacks in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Southeast Asia and in Saudi Arabia. But now it is likely to get many more recruits for its cause. The US is not waging a war against Islam, but the invasion of Iraq appears to have given wide currency to the belief in Muslim countries that it is. TV images of the apparent ease with which US military men and machines 64 By Design or Accident have been targeted make the US look vulnerable, lifting the morale and firing the zeal of jihadists. There is also the danger of Iraq becoming a crucible for turning out thousands of new battle-hardened jihadists who will want to destabilise their own societies when they return from Iraq. Thus, radicalism and terrorism worldwide, including in Southeast Asia, are likely to get a boost if the situation in Iraq is not brought under control. A chilling reminder of the continuing threat that terrorism poses can be found in a United Nations report released on 1 Dec. It said Al-Qaeda’s ideology has continued to spread, and about the only thing stopping terrorists from conducting attacks with chemical, biological or “dirty” radiation bombs is lack of technical expertise, which they will try to acquire. The situation in Iraq, while serious, can still be managed if the US, Europe and the UN can agree on a common international effort. But if the US has to slog on for years largely on its own, the diversion of its energy and resources to the Middle East could have significant strategic implications for the Asia-Pacific. It could mean, for instance, greater US dependence on other Asian...