Regional Outlook: Southeast Asia 2010-2011

The ASEAN-10

THE ASEAN-10 Brunei Darussalam By Pushpa Thambipillai As฀ the฀ most฀ stable,฀ predictable฀ and฀ wealthy฀ of฀ the฀ Southeast฀ Asian฀ states,฀ Brunei฀ Darussalam฀ is฀ in฀ no฀ hurry฀ to฀ change฀ the฀ status฀ quo.฀ This฀ generalization฀ applies฀ to฀ the฀ governmental฀ apparatus฀ as฀ well฀ as฀ the฀ peoples’฀ attitudes.฀ The฀ next฀ few฀ years฀ will฀ see฀ continuity฀ in฀ present฀policies฀and฀processes,฀although฀some฀issues฀may฀be฀addressed฀ more฀vigorously฀than฀in฀the฀past.฀One฀such฀issue฀must฀surely฀be฀the฀ country’s฀ general฀ complacency฀ with฀ its฀ comfortable฀ economic฀ status,฀ a฀ result฀ of฀ income฀ from฀ the฀ oil฀ and฀ gas฀ sector.฀ Confidence฀ has฀ been฀ shaken฀ to฀ some฀ extent฀ by฀ the฀ volatile฀ energy฀ markets฀ of฀ the฀ recent฀ past.฀A฀search฀for฀alternative฀means฀of฀maintaining฀comparable฀income฀ levels฀ and฀ the฀ comfort฀ and฀ expectations฀ of฀ the฀ society฀ has฀ to฀ some฀ degree฀begun. A฀ small฀ state฀ of฀ about฀ 390,000฀ people฀ with฀ a฀ low฀ annual฀ rate฀ of฀ population฀ increase,฀ Brunei฀ will฀ continue฀ to฀ enjoy฀ the฀ benefits฀ of฀ its฀ oil฀and฀gas฀income,฀overseen฀by฀a฀centrally฀managed฀political฀system฀ under฀the฀Malay฀Islamic฀Monarchy.฀However,฀the฀main฀worry฀continues฀ to฀be฀over฀its฀economic฀rather฀than฀its฀political฀system.฀As฀long฀as฀oil฀ prices฀remain฀relatively฀high,฀it฀will฀bode฀well฀for฀the฀country฀in฀the฀ medium฀term,฀as฀hydrocarbon฀reserves฀are฀still฀being฀discovered฀and฀ added฀to฀sources฀of฀national฀income.฀Thus฀it฀is฀thought฀that฀national฀ leaders฀ expect฀ the฀ oil฀ and฀ gas฀ sector฀ to฀ play฀ a฀ central฀ role฀ at฀ least฀ for฀ the฀ next฀ two฀ decades,฀ even฀ as฀ they฀ insist฀ on฀ the฀ diversification฀ of฀ the฀ economy.฀ Efforts฀ to฀ shake฀ off฀ complacency฀ seek฀ to฀ gear฀ the฀ population฀ towards฀ evolving฀ into฀ committed฀ and฀ productive฀ citizens฀ of฀the฀state. 20 01 PolOutlk p20-62.indd 20 12/22/09 3:18:59 PM 21 THE ASEAN-10 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Land Area: 5,770 sq. km. Population (2008 World Bank data): 397,000 Capital: Bandar Seri Begawan Type of Government: Monarchy Head of State and Government: Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Muizzaddin Waddaulah Currency Used: Brunei dollar US$ exchange rate on 16 November 2009: US$1 = B$1.389 A฀ “scathing”฀ speech฀ that฀ Sultan฀ Haji฀ Hassanal฀ Bolkiah,฀ delivered฀ in฀early฀2009,฀jolted฀Brunei฀—฀and฀especially฀its฀ministers฀and฀senior฀ ฀ bureaucrats฀—฀and฀gave฀those฀responsible฀for฀governance฀in฀the฀country฀ a฀ new฀ outlook.฀ From฀ policy-makers฀ at฀ the฀ ministerial฀ level฀ to฀ civil฀ servants฀and฀ordinary฀citizens,฀all฀have฀been฀instilled฀with฀purpose฀and฀ urgency฀in฀certain฀areas฀of฀national฀concern.฀That฀focus฀is฀expected฀to฀ ฀ carry฀over฀into฀the฀next฀few฀years฀as฀the฀Sultan฀offers฀more฀invigorating฀ observations,฀ concerned฀ with฀ the฀ slow฀ pace฀ of฀ policy-making฀ and฀ implementation.฀ In฀ this฀ respect,฀ the฀ Sultan฀ is,฀ as฀ head฀ of฀ state฀ and฀ government,฀ exercising฀ his฀ role฀ as฀ the฀ country’s฀ prime฀ minister;฀ he฀ expects฀his฀ministers฀to฀meet฀the฀challenges฀of฀good฀governance. Brunei฀ Darussalam฀ is฀ a฀ hereditary฀ monarchy฀ with฀ an฀ appointed฀ legislature฀and฀cabinet.฀However,฀unlike฀in฀most฀other฀political฀systems,฀ cabinet฀ deliberations฀ and฀ outcomes฀ are฀ not฀ disseminated฀ regularly฀ to฀ the฀public.฀The฀public฀thus฀continues฀to฀speculate฀on฀important฀policies,฀ on฀ whether฀ decisions฀ are฀ collective฀ or฀ derived฀ from฀ an฀ individual฀ ministry’s฀ input.฀ This฀ speculation฀ is฀ especially฀ strong฀ as฀ it฀ relates฀ to฀ decisions฀that฀attract฀concern฀from฀citizens,฀including฀decisions฀relating฀ to฀ education฀ policy.฀ The฀ trend฀ in฀ the฀ past฀ has฀ been฀ for฀ individual฀ ministers฀to฀assume฀responsibility฀for฀their฀policy฀areas.฀They฀also฀have฀ 01 PolOutlk p20-62.indd 21 12/22/09 3:18:59 PM 22 POLITICAL OUTLOOK to฀ respond฀ to฀ legislators’฀ queries฀ during฀ national฀ assembly฀ sessions฀ and฀ thus฀ face฀ some฀ public฀ scrutiny.฀ Some฀ of฀ them฀ also฀ engage฀ in฀ public฀meetings฀to฀explain฀their฀proposals฀and฀policies฀to฀the฀people,฀ for฀ example,฀ in฀ areas฀ related฀ to฀ district-level฀ affairs฀ or฀ welfare.฀ This฀ practice฀has฀encouraged฀a฀certain฀measure฀of฀openness฀and฀a฀positive฀ trend฀towards฀the฀transparency฀lacking฀in฀other฀instances. The฀cabinet฀will฀see฀changes฀in฀the฀coming฀year฀as฀the฀first฀ever฀ five-year฀terms฀of฀ministerial฀appointment฀for฀ministers฀introduced฀by฀ the฀Sultan฀near฀completion.฀The฀regular฀“movement”฀of฀senior฀permanent฀ secretaries฀and฀other฀officials฀amongst฀various฀ministries฀is฀understood฀ to฀signal฀that฀some฀are฀potential฀ministers฀or฀deputy฀ministers฀in฀the฀ next฀ line-up฀ of฀ cabinet฀ appointments.฀ That฀ line-up฀ will฀ surely฀ lower฀ the฀median฀age฀of฀the฀cabinet,฀as฀some฀senior฀ministers฀retire. National฀attention฀continues฀to฀be฀focused฀on฀non-traditional฀security฀ —฀ especially฀ economic฀ security฀ —฀ through฀ diversification฀ away฀ from฀ dependence...