-
Southeast Asia’s Security and Political Outlook
- ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
- Chapter
- Additional Information
SOUTHEAST ASIA’S SECURITY AND POLITICAL OUTLOOK By Jörn Dosch Theincreasingfrequencywithwhichnaturaldisastershaverecently struckSoutheastAsia—in2009earthquakesandtropicalstorms resulted in thousands of deaths and in severe displacement in Indonesia,thePhilippines,Vietnam,andotherpartsoftheregion—has sharpenedASEAN’sfocusonnon-traditionalsecurity(NTS)challenges. Having learned from the 2004 tsunami, the grouping has established variousmechanismsforregionaldisastermanagementandemergency response to facilitate rapid, coordinated action when needed. At the sametime,anddespiteterroristattacksinJakartainJuly2009,there is no indication that “man-made” security risks are on the increase in Southeast Asia. Overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea and disputed land borders (most prominently the still lingering Thai-Cambodian conflict over a 4.6-square-kilometre area around Preah Vihear Temple), piracy, human trafficking, environmental hazards caused by trans-boundary haze pollution and illegal logging, foodinsecurityandotherNTSissuesremaincausesforseriousconcern. However,nationalandregionalpolicyapproachestothesechallenges have been strengthened, not least through increasing cooperation with extra-regional powers on security matters. The overall stability and security of Southeast Asia will further benefit from the current four-way competition among the United States, Japan, China and, to a lesser extent, the European Union for regional influence that has resulted in the growing constructive, involvement of these powers in themanagementofregionalorder. Barack Obama’s victory in the U.S. presidential race created an immediateexpectationofimprovementandexpansioninWashington’s 3 01 PolOutlk p1-19.indd 3 12/18/09 2:19:09 PM 4 POLITICAL OUTLOOK relations with Southeast Asia. While the preceding administration of George W. Bush had briefly given ASEAN prominent attention in its “globalwaronterror”,therecanbelittledoubtthatWashingtonwas losing interest in ASEAN as a regional bloc and increasingly opting for bilateral rather than multilateral approaches towards Southeast Asiaanditsconstituentstatesduring2001–08.Hopesforapost-Bush revival of multilateralism and an upgrading of U.S.-ASEAN relations werenotdisappointed.InFebruary2009HillaryRodhamClintonnot onlyincludedIndonesiaonherfirstoverseastripaftertakingofficebut alsopaidthefirstevervisitofaU.S.SecretaryofStatetotheASEAN Secretariat.FollowinguponhermeetingsinJakarta,theUnitedStates inJulysignedanagreementtoaccedetotheASEANTreatyofAmity and Cooperation (TAC), after seventeen years of consideration, in an attempttoboostmultilateralapproachestoregionalsecurity.Atotalof twenty-sixstateshavenowsignedthe1976regionalcodeofconduct, makingtheTAConeofASEAN’smostsignificantinternationalsuccesses. The first ever ASEAN-U.S. Summit in Singapore in November 2009 (on the sidelines of the APEC summit) also seemingly points in the directionofASEAN’sre-emergenceasasignificantinternationalpartner inWashington’sforeignrelations. WhileSoutheastAsiahasundoubtedlyregaineditspreviouslylost geostrategic importance and priority on the U.S. foreign policy and defenceagenda,thenatureofWashington’sapproachtotheregionwill remainbilateralinmode.Washington’sandASEAN’sdivergingviews onMyanmarcontinuetobeamajorobstacletolong-termadvancesin the multilateral management of regional order. Although the Obama administrationhasannouncedareviewofitsMyanmarpolicy,based ontheobservationthatneithersanctionsnorengagementhavemoved that country’s military regime towards political liberalization, it is unlikelythatU.S.policy-makerswillwarmtoASEAN’spro-engagement approach any time soon. Much will depend on the outcome of the forthcoming elections in Myanmar, scheduled for 2010. Even if — as expected — the elections fall short of the mark in providing a free and fair contest, there are early indications that, in addition to the ASEANmemberstates,ChinaandIndiaandpossiblyalsoJapanwill 01 PolOutlk p1-19.indd 4 12/18/09 2:19:10 PM [3.149.214.32] Project MUSE (2024-04-24 02:55 GMT) 5 SOUTHEAST ASIA’S SECURITY AND POLITICAL OUTLOOK recognizethegovernmentthatresultsfromtheelections.TheObama administration might find itself isolated on the election issue. It thus needstokeepitsoptionsopen. ItshouldbenotedthatthesignificanceofMyanmarinWashington...
Buy This Book in Print