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10 POLITICAL OUTLOOK UNITED STATES-SOUTHEAST ASIA RELATIONS By Satu P. Limaye The new U.S. administration of Mr Barack Obama will inherit a relationship with Southeast Asia that is generally stronger — both at the bilateral level and the ASEAN/regional level — than is often portrayed both in regional capitals and in Washington D.C. U.S.-Southeast Asia relations are not irritant or problem-free. But significant change has occurred since the early dissonances over the Bush administration talking darkly of China as a “strategic competitor” and of crusades and “you are with us or against us” in the “war on terror” after the Al Qaeda attacks of 11 September 2001. Actual policy, even if occasionally clumsy diplomatically, has been sober and underlying structural opportunities are being taken advantage of. At the same time, there will be opportunities for the new administration to make policy adjustments, symbolic changes and even some important substantive departures that will further enhance U.S. relations with Southeast Asia. Three structural changes in U.S.-Southeast Asia relations are especially promising. First, the asymmetry in U.S. engagement with maritime and mainland Southeast Asia, a function of history including the Vietnam War and communist takeovers, is being reduced. Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte’s visit to Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Laos in September 2008 is a recent high point of an incremental but steady increase in engagement on both traditional and non-traditional security cooperation with Hanoi, Phnom Penh and Vientiane. The exception is Myanmar; and that will not change until the oppressive regime changes its approach. The reduction in the gap in U.S. engagement with mainland and maritime Southeast Asia is important because it not only improves bilateral relations with individual members of ASEAN with whom the U.S. has been estranged, but also because it indirectly contributes to ASEAN unity and efforts at integration . Simultaneously, the U.S. has continued to work effectively across a range of cooperative activities with long-standing allies and partners such as Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei, while pursuing new openings with Indonesia. No matter how much effort the U.S. expends in improving bilateral ties across the region, however, outcomes will be shaped by the political and economic dynamics within Southeast Asian countries (e.g., Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia after the 2009 elections) as well. 01 PolOutlk p1-15.indd 10 12/10/08 11:51:39 AM 11 SOUTHEAST ASIA’S SECURITY OUTLOOK A second important gain has been U.S. efforts to cooperate with ASEAN as an organization as it moves towards implementing its goal of becoming a political, security and cultural community by 2015. The new U.S. administration will take office following ASEAN’s expected ratification of its charter at its scheduled December 2008 Summit. The appointment by the U.S. of an ambassador to ASEAN, the first ASEAN dialogue partner to take this step, is an indication of American commitment to ASEAN integration. U.S. support for ASEAN integration is not contingent upon the charter’s ratification, and therefore the new administration will likely remain committed to supporting ASEAN’s integration through the ADVANCE programme which commits some US$7 million, particularly for activities towards an ASEAN economic community. A third underlying positive change has been the favourable calibration of competing factors that drive U.S. policy towards Southeast Asia. The U.S. juggles bilateral, global and wider Asia-Pacific considerations as it deals with the region. During the post-war period, bilateralism at one end and globalism at the other has tended to cause swings in U.S. approaches. Today, U.S. policy towards Southeast Asia better incorporates regional considerations including the role of China, the threat of terrorism and, as noted, ASEAN’s own moves towards integration and community. The net effect is to provide ballast for overall U.S.-Southeast Asia ties. But most importantly, the new U.S. administration will have the opportunity to address several pending policy opportunities such as holding a U.S.-ASEAN summit, U.S. signature/ratification of ASEAN’s Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) and a decision regarding attendance at the East Asian Summit (an option for the U.S. only if it signs the TAC). Given U.S. domestic and foreign policy priorities, immediate and favourable decisions on these policy directions would be a surprise. However, the zeitgeist increasingly favours movement on all three fronts. A meeting between the new...

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