8 March: Eclipsing May 13

2. A Tectonic Shift in Malaysian Politics

A Tectonic Shift in Malaysian Politics 33 2 A Tectonic Shift in Malaysian Politics Johan Saravanamuttu Introduction1 It was puzzling for many why Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who won by a landslide in 2004, should call a snap general election for March 8, 2008, a whole year ahead of the end of his five-year term. Much of the reasoning revolved around two factors; the economy andAnwar Ibrahim. The economic situation seemed destined to deteriorate, with the American economy likely to go into recession with its knock-on effects on Malaysia. The U.S. is still Malaysia’s single largest trading partner with about 19 per cent of overall trade. Even without this happening, petrol, diesel and kerosene prices were due for a hike and the inflation rate had been climbing steadily. Sometime in January, the government resorted to a rationing of cooking oil because of acute shortages. This policy was quickly revoked after a public outcry. There was of course the Anwar Factor. Anwar Ibrahim, former deputy premier, now de facto leader of the opposition People’s Justice Party (PKR) complained perhaps not 34 Johan Saravanamuttu unjustifiably that the government and the Election Commission had denied him the right to stand by calling for a March election. He would after all have been eligible by mid-April. It is entirely credible that the Abdullah Badawi government agonized over the fear that Anwar as a member of parliament meant trouble. However, the above two factors may not exhaust the plethora of reasons why an early general election really needed to be called. Abdullah himself admitted in a CNN interview that he needed a fresh mandate because of a whole host of new issues, and more time to complete his anti-corruption agenda. However, he surely would have preferred that the outbursts of street protests late 2007 did not occur before his dissolution of Parliament. The Bersih coalition of political parties and NGOs calling for clean elections on November 10 reportedly saw 40,000 people taking to the streets, and the Hindraf rally of some 30,000 Indians came close on the heels, on November 25, 2007. Abdullah took the heavy-handed action of detaining five Hindraf leaders under the draconian Internal Security Act (ISA), which he did not appear to relish. Abdullah could hardly afford more street rallies or new issues denting his moderate image any further, or worse, risk giving more time for a more formidable Opposition to gain momentum.Ahost of issues pepperedAbdullah’s short first term, especially in the last two years.2 Some of these developments were truly remarkable in exposing the mendacity, incompetence and corruption of the government, its leaders, political cronies and institutions in past years. Abdullah himself was embroiled in charges of nepotism. Amongst the more damning revelations were those related to the judiciary, albeit these were acts committed during A Tectonic Shift in Malaysian Politics 35 Mahathir era. The V.K. Lingam video recording impelled Abdullah himself to call for a Royal Commission to ascertain the extent of judge-fixing and case-fixing by the eponymous lawyer named in the scandal. The hearings revealed misdeeds that went so far as to include alleged writing of judgments by the self-same defence lawyer, for his presiding judge. There could even be a more mundane factor that caused the early calling of this general election, namely the new blood or generational shift factor. Many untested, younger UMNO and Barisan National politicians were anxiously waiting in the wings to rise in the hierarchy and to seek their baptism of fire. Among them was Abdullah’s son-in-law, the fast-rising Khairy Jamaluddin, as well as Lim Si Pin, the son of the receding Gerakan Party leader. The Malaysian Chinese Association’s (MCA) also needed to jettison some so-called “TeamA” members, although one of them, former health minister Chua Soi Lek, conveniently disqualified himself after resigning over a widely distributed sex video. Then, in the tiny northern state of Perlis, two UMNO ministers were evidently on the chopping block. There were also political trimming exercises to be undertaken within the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC), in its desperate attempt to retain the Indian vote. All in all, an exciting 12th General Election was in the offing but hardly any political analyst, including this one, could have predicted the major shift in the voting behavior of the Malaysian electorate that was to...