Japan and China in East Asian Integration

17. Japan’s Distorted Policies towards Asia

332 Japan and China CHAPTER 17 Japan’s Distorted Policies towards Asia Abe Likely to Follow Koizumi’s Lead on East Asia1 The trade ministers of Japan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) met in Kuala Lumpur on Aug. 23. At the meeting, trade minister Toshihiro Nikai proposed the idea of signing an East Asia Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) the following day. The agreement would include the so-called ASEAN Plus Three (Japan, China and South Korea), plus three (India, Australia and New Zealand). The idea is very similar to the “comprehensive economic partnership” proposed by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to ASEAN in January 2002. Practically, the only major difference is that Koizumi’s idea included the United States instead of India. Nikai probably chose India in view of its remarkable growth in the last four to five years. It seems he has no intention of excluding the United States from East Asia. What is more, the proposed members had already been approved at the East Asian summit in Malaysia in Decembe last year. Where ASEAN Stands ASEAN members are taking Nikai’s proposal seriously. At the same time, however, they insist that they should first advance three ASEAN Plus One frameworks: ASEAN Plus Japan, ASEAN Plus China and ASEAN Plus South Korea. 17 Japan&China Ch 17 11/6/07, 12:28 PM 332 333 Japan’s Distorted Policies towards Asia 333 They believe that unless these three groupings can be made to work, there is no way Nikai’s proposal will go further. The Nikai proposal seems to stem from three things: • An acknowledgment of India’s extraordinary growth, as well as consideration toward Australia and New Zealand, countries with which Japan has long had close ties • The fact that Japan got a late start on the ASEAN Plus Three initiative, and has found it difficult to strengthen economic cooperation with China and South Korea because of an impasse in political relations • A desire to weaken China’s influence. ASEAN nations are eager for ASEAN Plus Three, but rivalry between Japan, China and South Korea has become an obstacle. To break the deadlock, it will be necessary to agree on the three ASEAN Plus One initiatives and stay open to ASEAN Plus Six. As a group, ASEAN has been playing a leading role in the promotion of economic integration in the greater East Asian region. The union is also actively working toward EPAs with India and the United States, and is applying pressure on Japan, China and South Korea to get the three ASEAN Plus One initiatives off the ground. I expect it to play an increasingly central role in East Asian economic integration. ASEAN maintains a neutral position regarding Japan’s political strife with China and South Korea. Certainly it has criticized Koizumi’s visits to Yasukuni Shrine, and Singapore and Malaysia are particularly unhappy with the situation. But ASEAN also hopes to strengthen economic cooperation with Japan, thinking the establishment of an East Asian economic community otherwise impossible. Japan urgently needs to improve its Asian relations. In general, its relations with ASEAN are not the problem. There are no territorial disputes or major problems between them. Japan 17 Japan&China Ch 17 11/6/07, 12:28 PM 333 334 Japan and China signed EPAs with Singapore and Malaysia in 2002 and 2006, and has entered the final phase of negotiations for similar agreements with Thailand and the Philippines. If Japan can compromise on opening up its domestic agricultural market, I think EPAs with ASEAN countries will not be far off. The real problem is with China and South Korea. Summit meetings with those two countries have been suspended because of Koizumi’s visits to Yasukuni Shrine. His latest, on Aug. 15, seriously aggravated matters. It would be no exaggeration to say that things have gotten so bad that the damage may be beyond repair. And Abe? What about Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, seen as the most likely candidate to succeed Koizumi? It appears likely that Abe will follow the policies that the Koizumi administration has advanced over the last five years. In addition to political, economic and social reform, he is expected to push to revise the pacifist Constitution and turn the Self-Defense Forces into a full-fledged military. On foreign policy, he is likely to stick with the traditional policy of staying close to the United States and distancing Japan from Asia...