Russia-ASEAN Relations: New Directions

4. Prospects of East Asian Community and the Role of China

East Asian Community and the Role of China 33 4 Prospects of East Asian Community and the Role of China Vasily Mikheev The prospects of the East Asian Community depend upon the general development of economic, political and security situation in East Asia. In the coming years, factors of stabilization of general situation in East Asia will prevail over factors of destabilization. Competition among the main players in East Asia will escalate. However interests in cooperation in economy, energy, antiterrorism war, fighting pandemic and ecological threats will balance the competition tendencies. Growing economic and security inter-dependence between China and the United States, and between China and Japan will draw up “limitation lines” of possible deterioration of China–U.S. and China– Japan relationship, which all the three countries will not cross under any conflict situation. China will remain the most dynamic element in the development of East Asia’s economic, political and security situation. The growth of China’s economy will make its leaders look for a new global and regional political positioning of the country. China’s capital export overseas, started in 2005, will be a decisive motive for the activation of security diplomacy by Beijing. East Asia, objectively, will be most interested in uniting the economic resources 04 RUS_ASEAN Relations Ch 4 10/10/07, 12:11 PM 33 34 Vasily Mikheev of Japan, China, South Korea and ASEAN in order to maintain high economic growth and strengthen East Asian positions on the global markets against the growing influence of the American economy and European integration. Marketization and globalization of the Chinese economy, for the first time in history, will plant roots for real, wide-ranging regional integration in East Asia. However, an imbalance of military power in East Asia creates impediments to regional cooperation.The other impediment is the perception of China by the West as, economically, “a market friend”, even though a serious competitor, but politically, “a Communist foe” — meaning monopoly of the Communist Party of China (CPC) on political power. As long as this dual perception of China remains, it will be difficult to expect any real breakthrough in the creation of a multilateral security system in East Asia. The main threats and challenges to East Asia’s security are linked to the main factors of stability in the region. 1. THE NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR PROBLEM After stalling the Six-Party Talks in 2004, China revised its policy towards North Korea: It is now ready to pay for North Korea’s social-economic stability and the latter’s participation in the six-party process. The following three main interests determine China’s motivation. First, China is afraid that social unrest in North Korea, as a result of economic collapse, will create a “demographic-refugees threat” to northeastern China, the region where Chinese leader Hu Jintao initiated his own “restructuring plan” for the old industrial base — in addition to the “development plan of Western China” initiated by Hu’s political predecessors. So, North Korea’s social situation is a focus of personal interest to the top Chinese leaders. Second, China is exchanging its active policy aimed at bringing North Korea to the Six-Party Talks, which is what the United States wants, for an American firm stance against Taiwan independence. China’s logic towards the United States is: “We help you with the North Koreans, you help us with blocking Chen Shuibian’s pro-independence moves.” Third, China is afraid that if North Korea succeeds in its nuclear weapons programme, it could be perceived by the Taiwanese as a signal that Taiwan, as well, can become a nuclear state. And if Taiwan possesses nuclear weapons, it will change the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait not in Beijing’s, but in Taipei’s favour. That is why China is interested in the socio-economic stability of North Korea and in North Koreans’ participation in the Six-Party Talks and tries to 04 RUS_ASEAN Relations Ch 4 10/10/07, 12:11 PM 34 East Asian Community and the Role of China 35 use the summit-level diplomacy to push Kim Jong Il into continuing the sixparty process, which, once again, was stalled last November — just after Hu’s trip to North Korea a month earlier. China’s tactics in realizing the above interests includes the following: • In 2004–05, it provided around US$1 billion aid to North Korea in the form...