Asia-Pacific Security: Policy Challenges

10 Japan’s missile defence dilemma

10 Japan’s missile defence dilemma Aaron Matthews As the key ally of the United States in Northeast Asia and being in close proximity to North Korea (part of the ‘axis of evil’), Japan is now centre-stage in the current debate over missile defence. The Japanese government’s approach towards development of, and any future participation in, missile defence not only has significant repercussions for its regional security role, but may also provide an important indicator of its approach and commitment to its bilateral ties with the United States and China. This chapter seeks to develop a framework for understanding Japan’s approach towards missile defence. The key argument is that the formation of Japan’s policy towards missile defence has been guided by three principal strategic considerations: the wish to strengthen the US-Japan alliance; the importance of a stable relationship with China; and maintenance of domestic political support for the government’s policy towards missile defence. The first section will discuss how these factors have guided Japan’s participation in the development of a theatre missile defence (TMD) capability. The latter part of the chapter will use the framework to examine the challenge Japan faces in responding to the possible deployment of a strategic missile defence or National Missile Defence (NMD) system by the United States and, in particular, the missile defence proposal put forward in May 2001 by President George W. Bush. The rise in the missile threat to Japan has been the primary cause of the government’s examination of missile defence. Over the last decade, Japan’s defence planners have been confronted with the proliferation of ballistic missile capabilities in Northeast Asia. In particular, North Korea has developed a medium and intermediate range ballistic missile capability that threatens all of Japan (Bermudez 2001). In 1993 North Korea test fired several No-Dong missiles, demonstrating a capability to strike most of Japan. The Taepo-dong missile launch over Japan in 1998 provided a more dramatic demonstration of the progress of the Japan’s missile defence dilemma 127 North Korea’s missile program. The significance of the threat has been heightened by not only the extensive biological and chemical weapons that the regime is reported to possess but also by the possibility that it has a rudimentary nuclear weapon capability (Stimson Center 2000, 63–4). Given the regime’s uncertain future and hostile attitude towards Japan, this threat has made North Korea the most immediate concern for Japan’s defence planners. But although not openly acknowledged, the missile threat from China dominates long-term thinking in Japan. Beijing’s use of missile exercises to intimidate Taiwan in 1996 heightened attention in Tokyo to the missile capabilities of China (Funabashi 2000, 136). The Japanese government become more concerned that conflict in the Taiwan Straits could lead to the threat or use of missile strikes against Japan, particularly the US bases there. Japan has conducted a number of studies (both independently and with the United States) on its missile defence options to counter the threat from ballistic missiles (Swaine et al. 2001, 29–33). The government has examined acquiring both upper tier (wide area defence) and lower tier (point defence) TMD systems (Stimson Center 2000, 62–63). Defence officials are looking at upgrading Japan’s Patriots to the PAC-3 hit-to-kill capability in order to provide a limited point defence against missile attack. In August 1999 Japan and the United States signed an MOU on collaborative research of four components for the Block II interceptor of the upper tier Navy Theatre Wide (NTW) missile defence system. This is to be deployed on Aegis equipped warships such as Japan’s Kongo class destroyers. The Japanese government initially planned to spend roughly 20–30 billion yen (US$200–300 million) over a five to six year period for that research (Swaine et al. 2001, 35). Japan’s Defense Agency appropriated 2 billion yen (US$20 million) and 3.7 billion yen (US$37 million) for the research in the 2000 and 2001 financial years respectively (Japan Defense Agency 2001). Japan’s examination of missile defence options appears to suggest that the acquisition of such a capability is almost certain. Any uncertainty surrounding Japan’s commitment to missile defence is not related to the decision to acquire a capability but rather to the timeframe and strategic framework within which this decision will take place. The Japanese government, however, has been hesitant to commit to the deployment of missile defence...