The Post Cold War Order in Asia and the Challenge to ASEAN

Conclusion

38 Michael Yahuda By: ROS Size: 6" x 9" J/No: 05-14709 Fonts: Stempel Schneidler get worse if their relations should deteriorate further. A parallel may be drawn between the impact of Sino-American relations on ASEAN. ASEAN countries may benefit from a degree of rivalry between China and the United States, in the sense that it allows them hedge against undue Chinese influence. But they dread the possibility of armed conflict between them or even of the revival of American attempts to contain China. Similarly, a moderate degree of rivalry between China and Japan may be beneficial, but if relations were to deteriorate unduly they could have a highly disruptive and divisive effect on ASEAN countries and the region. Conclusion Much earlier on I suggested that security in Southeast Asia depended on the continuation of American structural power and the pattern of cooperation and competition between the major regional powers. But I also noted the significance of the new regionalism that has developed since the end of the Cold War. After all, in the absence of major conflict in the region the key to security in the short run at least is continued economic growth and development on the one side, and the 01 Post Cold War 5/26/06, 4:45 PM 38 39 Post Cold War Order in Asia & the Challenge to ASEAN By: ROS Size: 6" x 9" J/No: 05-14709 Fonts: Stempel Schneidler strengthening of effective and responsive governance by the member states of ASEAN on the other. In other words, there is much that the member states of ASEAN can do themselves. This does not mean trying to exercise a kind of leadership within ASEAN related institutions. ASEAN has been allocated the notional leadership role because none of the major powers trusts each other to carry out a leadership role. But that does not mean that ASEAN can take a lead against the wishes or interests of any of the major powers. Its leadership therefore should be seen as mainly procedural. The much more important security task for the member states of ASEAN is to tend to their domestic and collective needs of deepening their economic integration and improving their own governance. In particular this calls less for fine sounding action plans than it does for addressing practical matters. With regard to integrating the economies of ASEAN so as to make ASEAN more attractive to foreign investment at issue is not so much reducing tariffs still further, but rather the harder administrative and perhaps political tasks such as coordinating customs procedures, harmonizing product standards, 01 Post Cold War 5/26/06, 4:45 PM 39 40 Michael Yahuda By: ROS Size: 6" x 9" J/No: 05-14709 Fonts: Stempel Schneidler removing non-tariff barriers to trade in goods, liberalizing trade in services and setting up a credible dispute-settlement mechanism.25 Current statistics show that the biggest trading partner of ASEAN by far is ASEAN itself accounting for well over 22 per cent of exports and imports. By paying attention to the practical matters of developing an internal market not only will ASEAN tap its own potential better, but it would also make itself a more viable partner to China and the advanced economies that are keen to deepen economic relations. Similarly with regard to non-traditional security threats, which in many respects are the more immediate threats to the security and well-being of member states than the traditional ones, the main requirements are for the practical and administrative tasks of coordinating activities between the agencies of member states. These include improving the conditions for exchanging intelligence, coordinating measures to deal with infectious diseases, cooperating better to prevent drug 25 Rudolfo C. Severino, “Is ASEAN Finally Serious about Economic Integration?”, ISEAS Viewpoints, 30 November 2004. 01 Post Cold War 5/26/06, 4:45 PM 40 41 Post Cold War Order in Asia & the Challenge to ASEAN By: ROS Size: 6" x 9" J/No: 05-14709 Fonts: Stempel Schneidler trafficking and trafficking in people, establishing joint patrols to tackle piracy and so on. Given the rapidity of the rise of China and now India, the region will have to be able to respond effectively to the new forms of competition that they will provide. There is therefore an opportunity for ASEAN in the next few years to better integrate the economies of its members in particular. Indeed the future...