The Post Cold War Order in Asia and the Challenge to ASEAN

The Question of Regional Stability

14 Michael Yahuda By: ROS Size: 6" x 9" J/No: 05-14709 Fonts: Stempel Schneidler of conflict elsewhere in the region. Indeed in both South Korea and Japan there is growing local opposition to the terms on which American forces are based there and even to having the bases stationed in their countries at all. There is no question of the Americans being asked to leave at this point, but local hostility and the broader post Cold War environment indicate that their continued existence cannot be taken for granted. The Question of Regional Stability Notwithstanding the looser character of the American bilateral alliances, its alliance with Japan is regarded as the bedrock of the American strategic presence in East Asia. Indeed its significance is seen in the United States as global and not just regional. The alliance has been strengthened so that once again it is seen by both Washington and Tokyo as the linchpin of the provision of security to the region as a whole. Japan’s Cold War passivity has ended so that it is now able to provide effective logistic and rear services support to American forces engaged in conflict within the region and beyond. Spurred by dissatisfaction with what was deemed to be unsatisfactory support in the first Gulf War in 1991 and in the first Korean crisis of 1993–94 01 Post Cold War 5/26/06, 4:45 PM 14 15 Post Cold War Order in Asia & the Challenge to ASEAN By: ROS Size: 6" x 9" J/No: 05-14709 Fonts: Stempel Schneidler Japan agreed at the prodding of the United States to set new defense guidelines in 1996 and 1997 to replace the out-dated ones from the Cold War. Potential public opposition to the government’s readiness to go beyond the more restrictive interpretations limiting its potential use of its Self Defense Forces (SDF) was reduced by the adverse reaction to the Chinese attempt to intimidate Taiwan by the firing of missiles, some of which landed less than 60 miles from Japanese waters. The steady progression of the passage of new laws to allow more active military support for the United States, especially in the wake of 9/11, had an inherent logic of adjusting the alliance to meet the new circumstances of the post Cold War period, but they also gained support within Japan in reaction to the perceived rising military challenge from China and the new threat from North Korea as exemplified by its firing of a missile into the sea beyond Japan in 1998. This does not mean, however, that Japan has developed what might be called a national security perspective by which foreign policy could be guided by strategic and balance of power priorities. Evidence of this may be seen from the failure of the Japanese government to cultivate better relations with South Korea and with Russia 01 Post Cold War 5/26/06, 4:45 PM 15 16 Michael Yahuda By: ROS Size: 6" x 9" J/No: 05-14709 Fonts: Stempel Schneidler so as to improve its leverage in managing relations with China. At this point I should consider the growing rivalry between Japan and China that appears to have intensified since the turn of the 21st century. Mention has already been made of how the development of their respective nationalisms in the early 1990s after the demise of the Soviet Union, “the socialist motherland” sharpened their mutual antipathies. History has become the new trigger for their respective nationalisms. It is a history that is highly selective and is designed to serve political purposes. The younger generation in China who are further removed than their elders from the actual realities and complexities of the occupation period appear to be even more intense and focused in their anger against the Japanese.9 It has also been suggested that the antiJapanese demonstrations serve also as a focal point for the socially disaffected who have no other means of registering their discontent.10 In any event these 9 Peter Hayes Gries, China’s New Nationalism (Stanford University Press, 2004). 10 Interview with a senior official of the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 10 June 2004. 01 Post Cold War 5/26/06, 4:45 PM 16 17 Post Cold War Order in Asia & the Challenge to ASEAN By: ROS Size: 6" x 9" J/No: 05-14709 Fonts: Stempel Schneidler demonstrations and the hatred they manifest have...