ASEAN-China Relations: Realities and Prospects

Opening Remarks

xvii Opening Remarks On behalf of ISEAS, let me welcome all of you to ASEAN-China Forum 2004. ISEAS is only slightly younger than the original ASEAN first established in 1967, but ISEAS has, of course, not grown together with ASEAN in every respect. For one thing, ISEAS did not admit five new partners. For another, I am delighted to add ISEAS did not experience the financial crisis that almost paralysed some of the members of ASEAN. I say this only in jest in order to emphasize how presumptuous it is for me to mention ISEAS and ASEAN in the same breath. But, seriously, there is one link between the two that I am not afraid to point to. The founders of ASEAN, like those of our institute, would not have expected ASEAN to grow as quickly and as dramatically as it did during this past decade. The fact is that, despite the crises for some members and for the region as a whole, ASEAN proved to be more than viable under great stress and the Secretary General’s office in Jakarta is now busier than ever before. Among ASEAN’s many changes, there were a few that were exceptional. One of them was something that the founders of our institute would hardly have dared to dream of. I refer to the fact that ASEAN, the organization that the ISEAS as a research centre began to study almost from day one of its foundation, would one day have the People’s Republic of China as one of its warmest supporters. I think it would have been inconceivable for any of our founders that we can now expect concrete plans to be drawn up for ASEAN and China to develop a Free Trade Area. It is humbling to think how far ASEAN has come. You can thus imagine how proud our institute is to hold this forum today on “Developing ASEAN-China Relations”. We are indeed grateful that the Secretary General Mr Ong Keng Yong has found it possible to come and support our efforts and give us this keynote address. 00 ASEAN-China Relations Prelim 5/8/05, 8:59 AM 17 xviii xviii Opening Remarks I also want to thank the large number of paper writers and discussants who have agreed to help us explore the many realities that this relationship will have to face. We have many expert essays here on how ASEAN-China relations might be developed in the coming years and there are even more ideas there about the prospects for the relationship to progress smoothly. Needless to say, we look forward to the discussions that these papers will stimulate. However, there is one set of realities that we should not forget. ASEAN began under conditions of insecurity and threat but sought to focus initially on the possibilities of economic cooperation. The leaders of the five original members and their officials spent a lot of time tracing the ways and means for such cooperation to take effect. But, until the late 1980s, progress in intraregional economic relations was exceedingly slow with each member depending mainly on extra-regional trading relations for their development. In contrast, economic growth within each country into the first half of the 1990s was more dramatic. It has been explained that this had to do directly with the fact that the U.S. economy was doing so well during that period. Perhaps the sharp entrepreneurship of many of the region’s businessmen has something to do with it, too. We may even have to thank the cultural values that we have been so fortunate to have inherited. But the explanations that take us back to some major political decisions are those that attract me most of all. I do feel that they really made the difference between sluggish and cheeseparing talk and the readiness to take decisive steps forward. Let me mention a few obvious examples. In 1978, Chinese leaders turned away from an ideology that made the country poorer and that changed the background for ASEAN’s position. Another, ASEAN and its allies acted together to help rebuild the Cambodian nation and that was remarkable. Also, American political leaders pushed the Soviet Union to a state of collapse and ended the Cold War, indirectly giving ASEAN fresh fields to conquer. Yet another, ASEAN leaders decided to invite the remaining four Southeast Asian countries to join ASEAN; that was a decision not without pain but it was one that has led to...