ASEAN-China Relations: Realities and Prospects

9. US-ASEAN, Japan-ASEAN Relations and Their Impacts on China

110 Cao Yunhua 9 U.S.-ASEAN, Japan-ASEAN Relations and Their Impacts on China Cao Yunhua Since the end of the Cold War, and especially after the Asian financial crisis and the September 11 terrorist attacks, the presence and influence of some world powers including the United States, China, and Japan in Southeast Asia have greatly changed. Because of these changes, ASEAN has been readjusting its policy and trying to seek a balance of these powers to maintain peace, stability and prosperity in Southeast Asia. The readjustment is a strategic choice for ASEAN to meet the new situation in the region after the Cold War, as its members consider that ASEAN is not able to safeguard its security by its own efforts. At the same time, great powers driven by their own interests are sure to expand and compete in Southeast Asia. If ASEAN takes advantage of the competition of these great powers, it may achieve the balance of power and meet the ends of maintaining regional security, stability and prosperity. ASEAN believes that China’s influence on Southeast Asia tends to be increasing as an ambitious regional power, whereas United States is a “moderate superpower”. In this case, it is necessary to enlarge America’s and Japan’s 09 ASEAN-China Relations Ch 9 5/8/05, 9:02 AM 110 U.S.-ASEAN, Japan-ASEAN Relations and Their Impacts on China 111 presence and influence in Southeast Asia to balance China. This chapter mainly analyses the development and changes in the U.S.-ASEAN relations, Japan-ASEAN relations and their impact on China. ASEAN-US RELATIONS: STRENGTHENING THE MILITARY AND SECURITY COOPERATION After the Cold War, the United States has continued to reinforce economic and trade relations with Southeast Asia. Ever since the Clinton administration defined Southeast Asia as an important new market, U.S. investments and trade in Southeast Asian countries have risen steadily. In addition, Southeast Asian countries have come to depend on American capital and export market even more since the Asian financial crisis. At present, the United States is the largest export market for most of the ASEAN countries, and ASEAN is the fourth largest trade partner of the United States (only after Canada, Mexico and Japan). The volume of trade between the United States and ASEAN accounts for 20 per cent of the total trade volume between the United States and Asia, more than that between the United States and China. What is equally important is that ASEAN’s commitment to free trade is beneficial to the establishment of an open and multilateral trade system which is promoted actively by the United States. With the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) and other measures, ASEAN is accelerating the liberalization of the regional economy, which is expected by the United States. But what kind of role would the United States play in Southeast Asia’s security after the Cold War? Does Southeast Asia need a U.S. military presence? These questions are in dispute among ASEAN countries. Most Southeast Asian countries believe that the presence of great powers in Southeast Asia has changed much since the end of the Cold War. New regional powers have risen around Southeast Asia and they are trying to fill the power vacuum left by the United States and the Soviet Union, two superpowers during the Cold War. If the United States withdraws from Southeast Asia completely, the situation in Southeast Asia would be much more unstable. Thus, the maintenance of U.S. military forces in this region is a basic guarantee of its stability, prosperity and development. Goh Chok Tong, the premier of Singapore, once made a speech on “ASEAN-U.S. Relations: Challenges” during his visit to America in September 2000. He pointed out: The U.S. presence has been a determining reason for the peace and stability which Asia enjoys today. It has helped turn an unstable region of tension and strife into a booming and dynamic southeastern Asia. 09 ASEAN-China Relations Ch 9 5/8/05, 9:02 AM 111 112 Cao Yunhua He admitted that there were disagreements among the ASEAN countries on whether it was necessary for the U.S. presence in Southeast Asia after the end of the Cold War, especially its military presence. He went on: There is a grudging acceptance of each ASEAN country that the U.S. continues to be a stabilizing factor in the region...