ASEAN-China Relations: Realities and Prospects

8. Japan and the United States in ASEAN-China Relations

90 Herman Joseph S. Kraft 8 Japan and the United States in ASEAN-China Relations Herman Joseph S. Kraft INTRODUCTION Descriptions of the relationship between China and the ASEAN states range from one of inevitable hegemony1 to one of greater openness, comfort and cooperation.2 At first glance, these perspectives seem to reflect different points of emphasis. From a security standpoint, the effects of China’s growing military and economic strength on the medium- and long-term stability and prosperity of the ASEAN states is seen as a cause for concern. Increased economic cooperation, however, is being institutionalized through the ASEAN+3 process as well as through multilateral and bilateral free trade agreements. These apparently diametrically opposed tendencies are not necessarily mutually exclusive as it is quite possible to look at the increasing “openness, comfort and cooperation” between China and ASEAN as part of an ASEAN policy of accommodation in the face of the inexorable growth of Chinese power.The reality behind it, however, is probably closer to somewhere in between. Relations between China and the ASEAN states are tinged with elements of both heightened cooperation and continuing unease. From an ASEAN standpoint, the relationship with China is increasingly becoming one of its most important strategic partnership particularly over the long term. The ASEAN states, individually and collectively, need to 08 ASEAN-China Relations Ch 8 5/8/05, 9:02 AM 90 Japan and the United States in ASEAN-China Relations 91 balance between the dichotomy of competition and cooperation. It is, however, not purely a matter of exploring and finding common interests with China that could be exploited. ASEAN has two other strategic relationships with other major partners which are both more long-standing and enduring. While ASEAN’s relationship with China may develop into its most significant partnership over the long-term, its relationship with Japan and the United States are equally, if not more so, important in the present term. It is commonly perceived that ASEAN relations with Japan and the United States are part of a strategy of balancing the increasing power of China in the region. Doing so, however, reduces the importance of the evolving partnership between ASEAN and China, and attenuates the complexity of ASEAN relations with Japan and the United States to a mere strategy of balancing China. While the idea of seeking a surety against a future of Chinese hegemony over the region is certainly part of ASEAN’s concern, its relationship with Japan and the United States, and certainly with China, are all part of ASEAN’s self-identification as a honest broker in regional politics with the ultimate goal of maintaining peace and stability and promoting prosperity in Southeast Asia. In this context, the ASEAN states’ relations with their partners are all inter-related; thus, how they manage their relationship with both Japan and the United States will largely define the direction that their relationship with China will take. This chapter looks into three main areas. First, is the current state of relations between ASEAN and China. It is basically argued here that this relationship has increasingly moved towards greater cooperation at the initiative of China. Fundamentally, China has been concerned with the strategic partnerships that the ASEAN states have been building with the United States and, to a lesser extent, Japan. American preoccupation with the war on terror and Japan’s long economic economic recession has offered China the opportunity, which it has taken with both hands, to improve its relationship with the ASEAN states. It has done this by taking the initiative on economic cooperation while at the same time pushing policies that are directed at reassuring the ASEAN states that the long-standing notion of the “China threat” is exaggerated. Second, this chapter looks into the trends and directions of the relationship between ASEAN and Japan, and between ASEAN and the United States. It explores these developments in the context of the role of ASEAN as the hub of inter-connected relationships. Despite the damage done to the reputation and international standing of the association by the 1997 financial crisis, ASEAN remains the most acceptable mediator in a region where the competing interests of China, Japan and the United States are fully at work. Third, the chapter looks at how these trends and directions 08 ASEAN-China Relations Ch 8 5/8/05, 9:02 AM 91 92 Herman Joseph S. Kraft in ASEAN...