India and Southeast Asia: Towards Security Convergence

6. Myanmar: A Challenging Frontier

Myanmar: A Challenging Frontier 179 6 MYANMAR: A CHALLENGING FRONTIER Myanmar (formerly Burma),1 the second largest country in ASEAN in terms of land area, is in many ways a bridge between ASEAN and India and yet a bridge not sufficiently crossed by either and, in the process, left uncared for. Recent history and geography seem to have relegated Myanmar to a neglected corner. For a large country with a rich-resource endowment, a proud past and a strategic location straddling China, India and Southeast Asia in three directions, its influence on the countries of the region has at best remained neutral or marginal. Yet, in India– Southeast Asia relations, Myanmar remains a crucial factor as the internal and external security of Myanmar has a direct and considerable bearing on the vital national interests of India as well as Southeast Asian countries. After all, India has a 1,600-kilometre land boundary with Myanmar, a member country of ASEAN. Today, Myanmar is the only country in ASEAN where political conditions still remain uncertain and unsettled. The situation in Myanmar marked by the political stand-off between the military and the charismatic leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, has been attracting international attention and Western countries’ criticism of the regime for the treatment meted to her. ASEAN is also under fire from the West for not being able to take action against a member state with regard to the human rights situation there. This has often put ASEAN in a predicament. The matters of most immediate importance in Myanmar today are how leadership transitions will be achieved within the military regime and what economic policies the army will manage to put in place.2 A National Convention has been in progress since early 2004 and is entrusted with the drafting of a new Constitution. There is little expectation that the latter will usher in real democracy. Whether the new Constitution will meet the aspirations of numerous insurgent groups of minorities, which have observed ceasefire since the beginning of the Convention, is a moot question. While most of the ASEAN countries 07 India&SEA Ch 6 11/11/05, 8:19 AM 179 180 INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA: TOWARDS SECURITY CONVERGENCE have recovered from the financial crisis and are registering steady to impressive growth, the Myanmar economy is still under severe strain. The economy is in a difficult state but there is no mass hunger. To keep the economy in a controlled state while it is scheduled to integrate itself with the ASEAN processes would constitute a challenge to the military. On the external front, the implications of the developments in Myanmar on the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region, especially on the neighbouring countries, assume importance. Myanmar’s turn in 2006 for the ASEAN Standing Committee’s chairmanship and the opportunity to host the dialogue partnership and summit meetings with regional and global powers was yet another serious and imminent issue. For ASEAN, this had become a major concern, and for Myanmar, a test. With Myanmar’s decision to pass up the chairmanship this time, the issue has been resolved at least temporarily. A brief background to Myanmar’s membership in ASEAN and ASEAN’s response to the developments in Myanmar in recent years would be useful even as the Myanmar–ASEAN relations had reached a delicate stage with Myanmar’s chairmanship of ASEAN approaching in 2006. MYANMAR IN ASEAN Myanmar had chosen to remain in practical isolation from all its neighbours for over three decades until the mid-nineties when it decided to join ASEAN, perhaps hopeful that the membership will help withstand the pressure of censure and sanctions from the West and Japan for its handling of the democratic opposition led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Myanmar’s accession to ASEAN in 1997 was, however, not smooth. While there was broad support for the large northwestern neighbour to be part of the Southeast Asian grouping, there were several voices within ASEAN itself that were not particularly enthusiastic of Myanmar’s entry. This was because the military regime had drawn the wrath of a number of Western governments friendly to ASEAN members. Nevertheless, ASEAN clearly wishing not to be constrained in its decision-making by external pressure went ahead with inviting Myanmar to join the organization. Another factor might have been a desire on the part of Southeast Asian states to draw Yangon away from Beijing. In doing so, ASEAN also sought to find ways to pull Myanmar out of...