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Indonesian Electoral Behaviour

A Statistical Perspective

Aris Ananta, Evi Nurvidya Arifin and Leo Suryadinata

Publication Year: 2004

In Indonesia’s plural society, ethnicity and religion are often considered as two important independent variables to explain electoral behaviour. Many writers have used qualitative methods to relate the performance of political parties in terms of ethnicity and religion. This book questions these assumptions by looking at up-to-date data on the 1999 election and the 2000 population census. The authors, researchers from the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, statistically examine the strength of the impact of religious and ethnic variables relative to those of socio-economic variables (education, per capita income, migration, urbanization, and poverty) on the electoral behaviour of the seven major political parties. Their analysis and findings, together with detailed population profiles in terms of religion, ethnicity and socio-economic conditions at the provincial and district levels, throws light on not only the 1999 election but also the forthcoming 2004 election and beyond. This is the 2nd book in the ISEAS Series, Indonesia's Population.

Published by: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies

Frontmatter

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pp. 2-5

Contents

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pp. v-vii

List of Figures

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pp. vii-x

List of Tables

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pp. xi-xxv

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Message from the Director

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pp. xxvi-27

Indonesia is the largest country in Southeast Asia and it has been one of the foci of studies at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS). Three of our Indonesianists, Dr Leo Suryadinata, Dr Aris Ananta and Dr Evi Nurvidya Arifin, have been engaged in a major ongoing project which utilizes statistical analyses to understand the cultural, socioeconomic ...

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Preface

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pp. xxvii-xxviii

Our first book in this series, Indonesia’s Population: Ethnicity and Religion in a Changing Political Landscape, presents general Indonesian population profiles with special reference to ethnicity and religion at the provincial level. At the end of the above-mentioned book, there is a chapter which analyses both ethnic and religious factors in the Indonesian 1999 ...

Maps

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pp. xxx-42

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1 Introduction: Explaining Voting Behaviour in Indonesia

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pp. 1-9

The study of elections is an important aspect of political science. Elections are a characteristic of a democracy. A country without regular elections is definitely undemocratic but a country with regular elections is not necessarily democratic as it depends on the nature of these elections: whether or not they are free, fair and competitive. Without ...

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2 The Cultural Variables: Religion and Ethnicity

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pp. 11-96

Indonesia has a multi-religious and multi-ethnic society. This chapter presents and uses information on the religious and ethnic profiles of Indonesia for the year 2000 relating it to Indonesian electoral behaviour. The assumption is that the country’s ethnic and religious composition in 2000 differed little from that during the 1999 election. We use the ...

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3 The Socio-economic Variables (1): Education and its Geographical Composition

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pp. 97-138

Apart from two cultural variables — religion and ethnicity — we believe that socio-economic factors such as education are also likely to influence voting behaviour. This chapter examines educational levels in Indonesia with special reference to those people who received either a low education or high education. It is assumed that the level of education ...

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4 The Socio-economic Variables (2): Migrants and Urban Population

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pp. 139-215

In the previous chapter, we discussed education as one of the socioeconomic variables which might have influenced Indonesian voting behaviour in 1999. This chapter focuses on two other socio-economic variables: migrants and urbanites. ...

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5 Socio-economic Variables (3): Per Capita Income and Poverty

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pp. 217-247

In the previous chapter, we discussed migrants and urbanites at both the province and district levels. In this chapter we will focus on the last two socio-economic variables which might also have influenced Indonesian electoral behaviour in 1999. Apart from their relevance to our study, we have selected these two indicators based on the availability ...

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6 Results of the 1999 Election: National and Provincial Votes

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pp. 249-283

During the Soeharto era, with the exception of 1971, only three political parties were allowed to participate in the controlled election. This restricted political participation was changed completely after the fall of Soeharto in May 1998, resulting in the formation of more than 200 parties. To legitimize his government, the successor president, B.J. ...

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7 Results of the 1999 Election: District Votes

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pp. 285-365

In the previous chapter, we have presented the number and distribution of the votes gained by the seven major parties at the aggregate national and provincial levels. This chapter presents similar information at the district (regency or municipality) level, as reflected in Tables 7.1 to 7.30. This disaggregated information, along with other information ...

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8 Culture and Electoral Behaviour: Testing Religious and Ethnic Loyalties

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pp. 367-389

Most qualitative studies of Indonesian elections (including the 1999 election) show that religion and ethnicity played significant roles in influencing, if not determining, electoral behaviour. In this chapter, we use statistical methods to test whether there were such relationships/ associations in the 1999 election. Since there are commonly held ...

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9 Other Variables and Electoral Behaviour: Testing the Socio-economic Factors

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pp. 391-408

The previous chapter discusses the role of religion and ethnicity in the electoral behaviour in the 1999 election by controlling socio-economic variables and the relative strength of these two cultural variables for each of the seven winning parties. In this chapter we discuss the role of the socio-economic variables in explaining the votes. By doing so, we ...

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10 Conclusion: Findings and Significance

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pp. 409-418

... Religious and ethnic loyalties influenced the 1999 electoral outcomes, but they do not emerge as the most important variables in explaining the distribution of votes. The exceptions were for Golkar in Java, and for the PPP and PBB in the Outer Islands, where the “number of ...

Appendix 1: Data and Methods

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pp. 419-420

Appendix 2: Names of Districts by 1999 Election and 2000 Census

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pp. 421-422

Selected References

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pp. 423-427

About the Authors

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pp. 429-471


E-ISBN-13: 9789812305350
Print-ISBN-13: 9789812302274

Page Count: 429
Publication Year: 2004

Edition: 1

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Subject Headings

  • Indonesia -- Population.
  • Indonesia -- Population -- Statistics.
  • Voting -- Indonesia.
  • Voting -- Indonesia -- Statistics.
  • Elections -- Indonesia.
  • Elections -- Indonesia -- Statistics.
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