The 2nd ASEAN Reader

67. The Interrelationship between Global and Regional Security Issues

The Interrelationship Between Global and Regional Security Issues 329 By: ROS Size: 7.5" x 10.25" J/No: 03-14474 Fonts: New Baskerville 67. THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SECURITY ISSUES SEIZABURO SATO Reprinted in abridged form from Seizaburo Sato, “The Interrelationship Between Global and Regional Security Issues for the Pacific-Asian Region”, in Regional Dynamics: Security, Political and Economic Issues in the Asia-Pacific Region, edited by Robert A. Scalapino, Seizaburo Sato, Jusuf Wanandi, and Sung-Joo Han (Jakarta: Centre for Strategic and International Studies, 1990), pp. 1–18, by permission of the publisher. LOCAL CONFLICTS AND THE SUPERPOWER RIVALRY Among this region’s local conflicts, those having important global implications, as noted, are the North-South confrontation on the Korean peninsula, the Sino-Soviet confrontation, China-Taiwan relations, the conflicts surrounding the Indochina peninsula, and the domestic disturbances in the Philippines. Even though it is not possible to examine each fully in this essay, these local conflicts are unlikely to escalate into a major war involving the United States and the Soviet Union. They have been relatively well contained in the past, and with the exception of the Philippines, the various situations are generally moving toward improvement — although one must admit that permanent solutions may be illusive. On the Korean peninsula, due to the highly successful economic development and military buildup in South Korea, the possibility of North Korea achieving a military victory by surprise attack is decreasing . Further, the progress of political democratization and social liberalization since June 1987, has earned South Korea a greater degree of political stability and more favorable international recognition. While one cannot dismiss the possibility of North Korean sabotage, the 1988 Seoul Olympics promises to be a major success, and it will almost certainly enhance South Korea’s international standing with the Soviet Union, China, and the many other communist nations participating in the event. The fact that bilateral trade has been growing between China and South Korea is yet another factor contributing to the stability of the Korean peninsula. While it is true that military cooperation between North Korea and the Soviet Union has been expanding in recent years, such military assistance remains contained within important limitations. It is unthinkable, moreover, that the Soviets would risk provoking the United States into a military clash for the sake of North Korea, and 067 AR Ch 67 22/9/03, 12:54 PM 329 330 Seizaburo Sato By: ROS Size: 7.5" x 10.25" J/No: 03-14474 Fonts: New Baskerville North Korea itself does not wish to be induced into a superpower confrontation or military clash. It is also true that recently there have been signs of a growing anti-U.S. nationalism in South Korea, which can be interpreted, in part, as an expression of disapproval of the Chun Doo Hwan administration and also as a protest against the intensifying trade frictions with the United States. As long as Korea’s political democratization makes further advances and the influence of radical antigovernment political movements wane, Korea’s anti-U.S. nationalism is unlikely to reach heights that would inflict serious injuries on existing U.S.-Korea relations, especially given the obvious importance to South Korea of continued U.S. military and economic cooperation . It is also possible that the United States may wish to effect the reduction of its forces stationed in South Korea in line with its overall military budget cuts. If, however, the removal of U.S. forces from South Korea were undertaken in an illprepared manner, it would certainly add to the destabilization of the peninsula. On the other hand, if South Korea can further consolidate its economic gains, continue its military buildup, improve its political stability, and productively cope with the task of relaxing North-South tensions, the reduction or outright removal of U.S. forces should not have negative effects on the peace of the Korean peninsula. The United States, Japan, the Soviet Union, and China have respectively serious stakes in the issue of the North-South confrontation on the Korean peninsula, and therefore the improvement of bilateral relations and tension relaxation among these four major powers will substantially contribute to the stability of the peninsula. In turn, a stabilization of the Korean peninsula will exert positive influence on the future relations among the big four. The scale of the Sino-Soviet confrontation has indeed been extensive but nevertheless remains a local conflict in that it exists independently of the superpower rivalry between...