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64. Integrating ASEAN and Fragmenting ARF in a Subregional and Regional Context
- ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
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314 Kwan Kwok Leung By: ROS Size: 7.5" x 10.25" J/No: 03-14474 Fonts: New Baskerville 64. INTEGRATING ASEAN AND FRAGMENTING ARF IN A SUBREGIONAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT KWAN KWOK LEUNG Reprinted in abridged form from Kwan Kwok Leung, “Integrating ASEAN and Fragmenting ARF in a Subregional and Regional Context”, in Development in Southeast Asia: Review and Prospects, edited by Raymond K. H. Chan, Kwan Kwok Leung, and Raymond M. H. Ngan (Hampshire, UK: Ashgate Publishing, 2002), pp. 3–15, by permission of the author, the editors, and the publisher. SUBREGIONALISATION AND REGIONALISATION1 IN SOUTHEAST ASIA The centripetal force within the ASEAN is being counter balanced by the centrifugal force of the ARF. The subregional ASEAN states have to apply their survival skills among the regional Great Powers. In the east, to maintain its economic and political interests in the East and Southeast Asia, the Japan-USA alliance seems indestructible . Indeed, the long-term protection by the United States of many of the Southeast Asian countries to a certain extent safeguards the stability of the region. These countries have their price to pay. They suffer from the partial loss of autonomy in dealing with the regional affairs in places under their sphere of influence. The retreat of the United States after the Vietnam War reinforces the consolidation of the ASEAN as a whole yet simultaneously Japan has been ‘endorsed’ by the United States to ‘look after’ the region. However, many Southeast Asian countries are hostile to Japan as a gatekeeper in the Asia-Pacific for historic reasons. Any move from Japan to interfere in Southeast Asian affairs will trigger a reaction within the ASEAN. The interplay between the regional bloc and the allying Great Powers is intricate and delicate. In the west, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the withdrawal of the Russia from Southeast Asia, India’s efforts to scramble for control in the region was temporarily curbed. As one of the nuclear powers in Asia, India is deemed a threat to its regional neighbors, particularly Indochina. Although political confrontation between the ASEAN and India is being diluted by economic cooperation, the former tend to be exploited by the latter as a leverage against another nuclear power, China. Any potential confrontation between India and China will definitely have an impact on the stability of Southeast Asia. In the south, Australia plays a significant 064 AR Ch 64 22/9/03, 12:53 PM 314 Integrating ASEAN and Fragmenting ARF in a Subregional and Regional Context 315 By: ROS Size: 7.5" x 10.25" J/No: 03-14474 Fonts: New Baskerville role in the APEC and the ARF. And it regards Southeast Asia as a stepping stone to the international theatre. However, a socially unstable, religiously passionate, politically undemocratic, and densely populated Indonesia makes Australia feel uneasy. To Australia, Indonesia is often a barrier to the vast blue sea and to the more friendly ASEAN states like Malaysia and Singapore. Geographical proximity coupled with political diversity may lead to potential conflicts if economic relations of the two countries deteriorate. The situation in the north is more problematic . The political, economic and military expansion of the PRC poses a threat to the collective ASEAN. The ASEAN has always developed this ambivalence towards China. As an emerging economic giant, China provides many market opportunities for its neighboring countries. It is high time that the Southeast Asian countries revived their economy especially after the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s. At the same time China can also check the possible aggression of Japan in the region. Still, China will exert its pressure on territorial claims in the South China Sea and attempt to dominate the political arena. The South China Sea dispute is a flashpoint in the Asia-Pacific region. Since the 1970s, disputes over the territorial waters between the PRC and Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines, have made the relations between China and the ASEAN tense. The Manila Declaration of 1992 led to a temporary agreement on the South China Sea dispute. It urges ‘all parties concerned to exercise restraint in order to create a positive climate for the eventual resolution all disputes’ and emphasises ‘the necessity to resolve all sovereignty and jurisdictional issues about the South China Sea by peaceful means, without resort to force’.2 China at the same time declares that it ‘has maintained a highly restrained, responsible and constructive attitude on the issue of the South China Sea, adhering to...