-
98. Future Directions for ASEAN
- ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute
- Chapter
- Additional Information
486 Surin Pitsuwan By: ROS Size: 7.5" x 10.25" J/No: 03-14474 Fonts: New Baskerville 98. FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR ASEAN SURIN PITSUWAN Excerpted from Surin Pitsuwan, “Future Directions for ASEAN”, Trends in Southeast Asia no. 10 (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2001), by permission of the author and the publisher. But looking into the future, what do we have to do? We have to make ARF both meaningful and attractive. We have to make all ARF participants feel that it is worthwhile. I am not quite sure that they will be feeling that as we move into the immediate future. Henry Kissinger argued in Does America Need a Foreign Policy? Toward a Diplomacy for the 21st Century (Simon and Schuster, 2001) that Asian nations view each other as strategic rivals even though at the same time they co-operate on many economic matters. He further argues that wars between them are not likely, but neither can they be excluded. The international order of Asia therefore resembles that of Nineteenth Century Europe more than of the Twenty-First Century North Atlantic. We need a security structure that would dispel those notions. A structure that will allow us to mediate, negotiate and settle the conflicts and differences among countries in the region. The ARF must be more proactive, effective, and relevant. Since 1994, the ARF has been talking about confidence-building and the second phase of ASEAN diplomacy that came to be known as “Preventive Diplomacy ”. But the process got stuck on this phase, as several members became concerned that “Preventive Diplomacy” would be taken to mean external interference in domestic affairs of member countries. I do not know how long we have to wait until we can go into the crucial phase, i.e. the conflict resolution phase. The current situation requires us to move forward to the conflict resolution stage. Then and only then can we dispel the view that Kissinger has of the region, which is to say that we are not like Europe of the Nineteenth Century. We are a region, and an organization, of the late Twentieth Century, if not, the Twenty-First Century. Somehow, ASEAN leaders must try to find a formula to make the ARF much more effective. We cannot get away from the democratization process, it is inevitable. Without transparency, confidence , exchange, openness, and confidence in each other’s programmes and activities, we would not have a sense of 098 AR Ch 98 22/9/03, 1:01 PM 486 Future Directions for ASEAN 487 By: ROS Size: 7.5" x 10.25" J/No: 03-14474 Fonts: New Baskerville security and stability within the region. Professor Amitav Acharya got it right when he suggested that democracy will bring about more stability in the long term, although countries may have to go through a transitional period of instability, insecurity and tension. But there is no way we as a region could avoid the road to democratization. When we were preparing for the ASEAN Vision 2020 blueprint in Thailand, we wanted to introduce the phrase “ASEAN as an Open Society” into the Vision 2020, but even this proved to be difficult because many members felt that this phrase could create confusion in the region as it could imply the creation of an openly democratic ASEAN. I asked my then Prime Minister, Chuan Leekpai, to convince our ASEAN colleagues that “open society” is not a threat, but a way for ASEAN. When this was raised at the Kuala Lumpur ASEAN Summit, members were very much divided. Some argued that “open societies” must be consistent with the traditional ways of each ASEAN country while others suggested “plural, open societies” as an alternative. If one looks at the ASEAN Vision 2020 statement, the phrase “open societies” was eventually included but it is understood to be consistent with the Indonesian spirit of gotong royong [mutual assistance]. So one understands how difficult it is to bring in something new to the ASEAN process but we must keep on trying. And I am glad to say that we are moving in that direction, even though there is a lot of hesitation and reservation on the part of many members. ASEAN was also suffering from a bubble economy, which has very clear and obvious characteristics. One, the capital investments that propelled development and industrialization in the past three decades came mostly from outside the region — Japan, western Europe, the US, and Australia. Secondly, the technology to propel industry...