The 2nd ASEAN Reader

96. The Future of ASEAN

The Future of ASEAN 481 By: ROS Size: 7.5" x 10.25" J/No: 03-14474 Fonts: New Baskerville 96. THE FUTURE OF ASEAN JULIUS CAESAR PARRENAS Reprinted in abridged form from Julius Caesar Parrenas, “The Future of ASEAN”, in The New Asia-Pacific Order, edited by Chan Heng Chee (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1997), pp. 186–219, by permission of the author and the publisher. The trend towards the deepening of ASEAN’s co-operation in a wide variety of areas including the security and economic fields, expansion of its membership, and its increasing role in Asia-Pacific affairs will most likely continue in the years leading to and beyond the turn of the century. Change and uncertainty in the global and regional environment, a factor that has spurred the growth of ASEAN co-operation, will continue in the next few years as the restructuring of international relations in the wake of the end of the Cold War continues. The uncertain future of Chinese politics, given the economic and social changes currently taking place, and China’s role in the region, will continue to exert pressure on ASEAN to strengthen itself by intensifying economic, political, and security cooperation and by expanding its membership to include Laos, Cambodia, and as circumstances allow, Myanmar. Given the relative decline in the United States’ security role in the Asia-Pacific and the pressures from Japan, Australia, Canada, and possibly, Russia, for greater multilateral security dialogues, ASEAN, through the ARF, will assume a larger importance in shaping regional security affairs. The increasing importance of trade and other economic issues in international relations will also encourage ASEAN to further deepen the process of economic integration by including more areas, such as services, in AFTA and by embarking on closer consultations regarding macroeconomic policies. This will be pushed by external and internal factors: the threat of ASEAN being diluted by APEC and global trade liberalization within the WTO framework and the rapidly growing infrastructure and financial linkages and trade and investment flows among its member countries. Parallel to these external factors, the process of co-operation being constantly pushed forward by institutionalized ASEANlevel meetings of senior officials and ministers will provide a much slower but constantly moving engine for the advancement and marginal improvement of regional co-operation in various fields. This 096 AR Ch 96 22/9/03, 1:01 PM 481 482 Julius Caesar Parrenas By: ROS Size: 7.5" x 10.25" J/No: 03-14474 Fonts: New Baskerville will pave the way for the success of more ambitious regional integration schemes that may not yet be currently acceptable but which could become realities in the early part of the next century. Thus, ASEAN will most probably move forward significantly in the areas of economic integration as well as political and security co-operation in the years ahead. It will also play a more active role in shaping regional security through the ARF. The extent of ASEAN’s influence will be determined by the extent of economic development and military strength it will attain within the next few years relative to its other neighbours in Asia. If current trends continue and if political integration can follow economic integration, ASEAN will eventually join the United States, China, Russia, and Japan as a major power in the AsiaPacific in the first quarter of the twenty-first century. The challenges that ASEAN will face in the coming years are of a different nature from those it had faced until now. One is the management of its growing regional role vis-à-vis the major powers, especially China, with which several of its member countries have overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea. If the past is to be taken as a key to understanding the future, one could say that ASEAN would try to take a neutral or “honest broker” position in the conflicts arising between and among the major Asia-Pacific powers and encourage the peaceful resolution of such conflicts. ASEAN would build up its security role in Southeast Asia with a view to keeping access to the region’s trade and sea lanes open to all other countries. It would also deal with China’s claims to the South China Sea in a non-confrontational way and push for a solution that would satisfy the claimants’ requirements for security and access to maritime resources. While ASEAN has taken initial steps through the informal meetings on the South China Sea issue and...