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This topic – assigned to me, not chosen – is highly speculative, as readers will recognise. It does, however, have the potential to direct analysis to the centre of Indonesia’s present crises and dilemmas. One’s imagining of the future powerfully shapes what one does today. There is inescapable difficulty in the topic, however, for there has never been a single view – Indonesian, Ambonese, Acehenese, Javanese, Balinese, Christian, Muslim, Hindu, young, old, educated, middle-class, peasant or whatever – of the future. It would even be wrong to say that there have been as many views of the future as there have been ethnic, class and religious groups in Indonesia. In fact, there have been as many views of the future as there are individuals in Indonesia, as is true for the rest of humankind. Moreover, the records of life and thought in Indonesia rarely include anyone’s views of the future, except implicitly in their actions and, more often, problematically in the pronouncements of politicians. Nevertheless , we may speculate usefully on the topic, and bring history to bear on its implications. Examination of views of the future in Indonesia from a historical perspective raises several recurrent themes. Notable among these are (1) the belief that the past was better than the present and that a better future must in some measure revive the benefits of the idealised past; (2) frequent and sometimes violent dispute over how that better future might be achieved; and (3) the failure of successive leadership groups to deliver the better future which they promise. These recurring patterns have bequeathed to today’s citizens of Indonesia widespread cynicism about political leadership, a distrust of institutions and a willingness to try radically alternative forms of leadership and ideology. In other words, volatility is a legacy of Indonesian searches for a better future, and over a long time. Given the patterns noted above and the general stage of Indonesian socioeconomic development, it is not surprising that the 19 INDONESIAN VIEWS OF THE FUTURE M.C. Ricklefs 234 AA/Part4&5 23/3/01 6:27 PM Page 234 most potent and convulsive searches for a better future have been driven largely by an intellectual restlessness among the elite combined with the volcanic force of peasant radicalism. The period since the revolution in Indonesia is the most familiar and the easiest from which to draw out patterns. It is important to recognise, however, that the themes discussed here have deeper historical roots, and are thus part of longer Indonesian experience and of more deeply rooted Indonesian expectations – and thus that they carry the authority of folk knowledge, of intergenerationally transmitted expectations and presumptions about the future. The history of countries such as the United States or Australia leads their citizens to believe that, however corrupt, foolish or incompetent their leaders may prove to be, the institutions of society and the state make it unlikely that citizens’ property, beliefs or liberties will be taken from them. Even intense controversy thus rests upon a bedrock of shared expectations about the future for the mainstream of those societies. No such history exists in Indonesia. Rather, history and memory tell people in Indonesia that their leaders will prove corrupt, foolish and/or incompetent, that their property, beliefs and liberties are constantly under threat, and that it has always been so. Yet the urgent, painful search for a better future goes on. Speculation about past expectations of the future in Indonesia also emphasises the importance of religion. It is not surprising that religion should play a central role in the search for greater justice and morality, that messianism provides promises that desperate people are willing to embrace, or that mysticism provides solace to those who lose hope. One might observe that this reflects the recurring failure of any other form of leadership, but religious leaders have also failed their followers. No one has yet delivered the ‘Just King’ (Ratu Adil) of Javanese messianic tradition, or the Mahdi of Islam, to Indonesia. Despite the manifest failure of religion to provide Indonesians with the future they sought, however, as other ideas have fallen by the wayside – the embracing of colonialism and its culture, leftist radicalism, secular nationalism , democracy à la Indonesia, Pancasila, this or that – religion has retained its capacity to mobilise hope. Examples from the period before independence, revolution or colonial rule will illustrate the depth of these patterns in the Indonesian experience. It is only in a few cases from before the 20th century that historical records are sufficient to...

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