Demographic Avant-Garde: Jews in Bohemia between the Enlightenment and the Shoah

Chapter 1. Population Change, Demographic Transition and Its Forerunners

CHAPTER 1 Population Change, Demographic Transition, and Its Forerunners This book spans the long period between the middle of the eighteenth century and the first three decades of the twentieth. Throughout Europe, this was a time when modern society was taking shape and when the absolutism , centralized governance, and feudalism of the early modern era were in decline and the early stages of capitalism and industrialization were under way. It was a period marked by political revolutions that resulted in the establishment of universal civil rights and the advancement of technological progress, social mobility, and institutional change. These political and macro-economic changes affected the wellbeing, status, lifestyle , and aspirations of individuals and families. On both the macro- and micro- levels, modernization shaped demographic development and led to a qualitative change in reproductive behavior that is known as the “demographic transition.” Jewish populations in many European countries were affected not just by the overarching modernization of gentile society but also by the Jewish reform movement (Haskalah). The first brought Jews civic freedom, while the second led to a wider engagement in the secular world and altered the Jews’ relationship to the traditional religious orthodoxy. At the same time their demographic behavior was changing. The demographic changes that Jews went through are relatively well traceable, as censuses often distinguished the population by religious denomination, and Jewish population registers were maintained separately from those of the gentiles. Before getting into a detailed examination of the demographic and socioeconomic aspects of Jewish population development, let us look first at the general lines of demographic development across the centuries and the various interpretations and theories of demographic transition. 4 Demographic Avant-Garde Demographic Development and the Concept of Demographic Transition Estimates of world population growth (Bachi 1976, Coale 1986, Biraben 2006) since approximately the start of the Common Era show that for centuries population size stagnated with population growth slightly above zero. This is so because both the fertility rate and the mortality rate were high. Not until the middle of the seventeenth century do we begin to see slight growth, followed by a sharp increase in the middle of the eighteenth century, when world population growth is estimated to have been around seven people per thousand per year (Coale 1986). Population growth continued to accelerate and reached its peak in the 1960s at nearly twenty people per thousand annually. Since then, the rate of increase has decreased slightly. It is no accident that rapid population growth coincided with the start of the industrial age and modernization. The early stage of world population growth was due to rapid increases among Europeans and among the population of European origin overseas. Changes in population growth have been caused by a shift in the balance between fertility and mortality rates and more generally by changing reproductive behavior, all of which are collectively referred to as the “demographic transition” (Notestein 1945, Davis 1945). This transition has gradually occurred in nearly every country in the world. The focus here is on the circumstances of the demographic transition in Europe, as this is the relevant frame for the Jewish demographic transition. In the past two centuries the European population has undergone a transition from a pattern of relatively high fertility and high mortality to one of moderate fertility and low mortality. European populations have completed a virtual loop from moderate growth or stagnation to high population growth and back to demographic stagnation again. The timing, sequencing, and speed of fertility and mortality changes influenced the pace of population growth during the transition. In Europe four stages of population development can be identified (Bachi 1976, Vallin 2006, Biraben 2006): Stage 1: the pre-modern era, when population growth was small or non-existent; Stage 2: rapid population growth, coinciding with the early stage of modernization; Stage 3: decelerating but continued growth, until approximately the 1970s; Chapter 1. Population Change, Demographic Transition and Its Forerunners 5 Stage 4: the onset of stagnation or actual population decreases and population ageing, from the 1970s onwards. All populations in Europe today are in Stage 4. Some populations in the world have not yet reached this stage and are still in Stage 3 or even in Stage 2. However, every population is expected to eventually reach Stage 4. Fertility and mortality rates are the main factors regulating population growth. Mortality is determined by environment, way of life, and technology , and it had a large...