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165 Document No. 24: CIA Situation Report, “Poland” December 8, 1980 After a feverish weekend of attempts to determine whether an invasion of Poland was imminent, the CIA, as reported in this document, was prepared only to say that the Warsaw Pact, primarily consisting of Soviet forces, was “ready for military intervention .” Agency analysts admitted that “we are not able to predict when the combat forces will begin moving into Poland.” Part of the problem was the presence of heavy cloud cover over Poland which obstructed the view of U.S. spy satellites. By the date of this document, of course, Soviet-led forces were already scheduled to have entered Poland, according to martial law planner Ryszard Kukliński. But the leaders of the Warsaw Pact had already decided to postpone any military action for the time being (see Document No. 22). Situation Reports Poland We estimate that the Warsaw Pact, with predominantly Soviet forces, is ready for military intervention in Poland. We are not able to predict when combat forces begins moving into Poland. Warsaw Pact military preparations have advanced to the point where some 15–25 divisions now could be ready for a military intervention in Poland. President Brezhnev and Foreign Minister gromyko arrived in New Delhi today for an official visit and will return to Moscow on Thursday. The Soviets are less likely to intervene while Brezhnev is out of the USSR, but we cannot rule out the possibility that they will. Military Preparations [One paragraph, 10 lines, excised] [Two lines excised] evidence of mobilization activity and preparation of forces in East germany, Czechoslovakia, and all three western military districts of the USSR. We have not detected any substantial mobilization activity by Polish or Soviet forces in Poland. In East germany, [two lines excised] Seven Soviet divisions opposite West germany appear to have gone on alert since Wednesday, possibly in anticipation of Western reactions. Soviet divisions in germany are maintained at high manning levels in peacetime and do not require mobilization of reservists. Troops in some East german units have had their leaves restricted, and increased states of readiness have been imposed. 166 In Czechoslovakia, elements of one Soviet and three Czechoslovak divisions moved out of their garrisons over the weekend. Two other Czechoslovak divisions were preparing for deployment on Saturday. [Two lines excised] Mobilization activity has been observed at four Soviet divisions in the western USSR—two in the Baltic and two in the Carpathian Military Districts. [Half line excised] truck convoys in the southwest portion of the Baltic Military District also suggests logistics support units have been mobilized. Another division in the Belorussian Military District also may be preparing to move. Before the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968, the Soviets moved airborne troops from their garrisons to departure airfields and assembled transport aircraft from other regions of the USSR at airfields where they could more directly support military operations in Eastern Europe. [Four lines excised] We have not detected increased readiness levels of Soviet strategic rocket forces or naval forces. This could be implemented on short notice, however, just before an intervention was initiated. [Half line excised] [Source: FOIA release from the CIA, on file at the National Security Archive, “Soviet Flashpoints” collection.] ...

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