NBR Analysis: 2009-2012

Pakistani Partnerships with the United States: An Assessment

november 2009 NBR ANALYSIS Pakistani Partnerships with the United States: An Assessment Daniel Markey [This page intentionally left blank.] 45 Pakistani Partnerships with the United States: An Assessment Daniel Markey Daniel Markey is Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. From 2003–07 he held the South Asia portfolio on the Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State. He is currently writing a book on the future of U.S. relations with Pakistan. He can be reached at . Note: The author would like to thank Daniel Simons for his assistance with this project. 46 Executive Summary This essay assesses the relationships between the U.S. and different elements within Pakistan’s political and military leadership in the context of ongoing regional counterterrorism and counter-insurgency efforts. Main Argument • Since anti-American sentiment is widespread in Pakistan, political and military leaders tend to justify partnership with the U.S. as a necessary evil rather than a positive good. • Pakistan’s military is conflicted in its partnership with the U.S., in part because of doubts about whether U.S. and Pakistani strategic interests are aligned, and in part because the Pakistani military lacks a robust, effective capacity to tackle the insurgents and terrorists that the U.S. perceives to be the greatest threat to regional and international security. • Given the political fragility of the ruling coalition government in Islamabad, it is important to note that Pakistan’s other political party leaders, including former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, range widely in their support for cooperation with the U.S. • Islamist parties stand no chance of winning national power through the ballot box, but in certain instances they may prove to be the only U.S. conduit for effective, albeit limited, counterterrorism cooperation. Policy Implications • Expanding technical assistance to civilian institutions and political parties in Pakistan may help to solidify Pakistan’s civilian democracy and avoid a return to military rule. • Reaching out to different political parties, including those with limited regional constituencies, may offer a means to enhance U.S.-Pakistan cooperation at the subnational level. • Undertaking several major assistance programs that provide high-profile demonstrations of U.S. partnership and meet serious development needs could help to mitigate antiAmericanism in Pakistan. • Offering Pakistan’s military and intelligence the platforms, tools, and training appropriate to counter-insurgency operations has the potential to induce deeper cooperation with the U.S. 47 markey T he identity and interests of Pakistan’s leaders are of profound importance to U.S. military, intelligence, and diplomatic operations in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the neighboring regions. The cultivation of effective relationships in Pakistan requires understanding the nuances of Pakistan’s leadership. While anti-American sentiment is widespread in Pakistani society, the overwhelming majority of Pakistanis are also opposed to terrorism and Islamist extremism. Many Pakistanis and their leaders are open to the prospect of partnerships with the United States as long as they perceive concrete opportunities for economic, political, or social advancement. This essay examines the identity, interests, and popular standing of Pakistan’s major leaders, particularly with respect to their willingness to cooperate or engage in partnerships with the United States. The first section provides an overview of Pakistani public attitudes toward cooperation with the United States. The subsequent three sections then assess Pakistan’s major political party leaders, top military officers, and influential individuals from outside the realm of formal party politics, respectively. For each set of leaders, the essay identifies bases of popular and institutional support as well as the extent of these leaders’ willingness to support U.S. efforts in the region. The essay concludes with some options for how the United States might cultivate more effective relationships in Pakistan. Pakistani Public Attitudes Pakistan’s history has been punctuated by an on-again, off-again partnership with the United States.1 Over the past 60 years, most Pakistanis have—rightly or wrongly—come to view U.S. influence as a primary determinant of their nation’s fate and a heavy hand behind the actions of their leaders. Partnership with Washington has always had critics in Pakistan. Pakistanis to the left of center have long criticized U.S. “imperialism,” while Islamists, particularly after the Iranian Revolution, pursued their own anti-Western agendas. Since the early 1990s, when the Cold War’s end and Islamabad’s determined pursuit of a nuclear capability inclined Washington to...