NBR Analysis: Volume 11

Asian Armed Forces: Internal and External Tasks and Capabilities

THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ASIAN RESEARCH NBR ANALYSIS Asian Armed Forces: Internal and External Tasks and Capabilities Sheldon W. Simon VOLUME 11, NUMBER 1, MAY 2000 [This page intentionally left blank.] 3 Foreword Economic and political tsunamis swept over Asia beginning in 1997, resulting in a period of rapid change and uncertainty. Many nations are now showing signs of economic recovery—although some are not—and many are experiencing remarkable political changes. In order to assess the impact of these developments on Asian military forces and the possibility for multilateral military cooperation in Southeast Asia, Sheldon Simon, professor of political science at Arizona State University, analyzes recent trends in policy, defense spending, and military acquisitions in the original ASEAN core countries (Indonesia , Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Singapore). By way of comparison, Professor Simon also examines the direction of East Asia’s most modern military, Japan’s Self Defense Force (JSDF), and its expanding roles within the region. While Professor Simon finds no indication that ASEAN states are prepared to transform the Association into a military alliance, the 1999 crisis in East Timor provided an opportunity for ASEAN armed forces to participate in cooperative peacekeeping. In a change from its defense orientation of the early 1990s, the United States has been in the forefront of those encouraging such a multilateral approach to regional defense. Moreover , the United States has also urged China and Japan to participate in regional security cooperation. However, according to Professor Simon, the ASEAN states lack the political will, military equipment, and interoperability experience to perform in a multilateral setting . Japan too remains constrained in its role as a provider of stability and security in the region, despite its recent initiatives to counter missile development in Northeast Asia and strengthen relations with the Republic of Korea. Professor Simon concludes that until Japan and its neighbors agree that Japan has more fully become a “normal” nation and ASEAN 3 4 NBR ANALYSIS Richard J. Ellings President The National Bureau of Asian Research moves in the direction of cooperative defense, there seems to be little alternative for regional security to the maintenance of U.S. forward deployments in the western Pacific. Professor Simon’s paper was presented at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS) conference, Evolving Roles for the Military in the Asia-Pacific, in Honolulu on March 28-30, 2000 and at NBR’s conference, The Many Faces of Asian Security: Beyond 2000, which was held at Arizona State University on April 27, 2000. A version of Professor Simon’s essay will also appear in a collection of papers resulting from NBR’s conference. The published volume will be used by policymakers and as a textbook for university courses on American foreign policy and Asian studies. NBR is grateful to APCSS, The Barry Goldwater Chair of American Institutions, and the Program for Southeast Asia Studies at ASU for their generous support of Professor Simon’s work and the Many Faces of Asian Security conference. 4 5 Asian Armed Forces: Internal and External Tasks and Capabilities Sheldon W. Simon Sheldon Simon, professor of political science at Arizona State University, is one of America’s foremost scholars of international security in Southeast Asia. He is author and editor of numerous books and articles, including: Southeast Asian Security in the New Millenium (1996, with Richard J. Ellings), East Asian Security in the Post-Cold War Era (1993), and The Future of Asian-Pacific Security Collaboration (1988). This paper was prepared for the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies Conference Evolving Roles For The Military in the Asia-Pacific, Honolulu, March 28-30, 2000 and for The Many Faces of Asian Security: Beyond 2000 Conference, Arizona State University, Tempe, April 2000. In order to assess the impact of the economic crisis on Asian military forces and the possibility for multilateral military cooperation in Southeast Asia, this study analyzes recent trends in defense spending and military acquisitions in the original ASEAN core countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Singapore). By way of comparison, the direction of East Asia’s most modern military, Japan’s Self Defense Force (JSDF), and its expanding roles within the region are also examined. The paper demonstrates that new prospects for military cooperation between Japan and Southeast Asian countries exist. However, the ASEAN states lack the political will, military equipment, and interoperability experience to perform in a multilateral setting. Moreover, Tokyo’s own political...