Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency in South Asia

Counterterrorism Cooperation in South Asia: History and Prospects

79 the national bureau of asian research Counterterrorism Cooperation in South Asia: History and Prospects Sumit Ganguly SUMIT GANGULY is Professor of Political Science and holds the Rabindranath Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations at Indiana University in Bloomington. A specialist on the contemporary politics of South Asia, he is the author, co-author, editor, or co-editor of twenty books on the region. Dr. Ganguly has previously taught at James Madison College, Michigan State University, Hunter College of the City University of New York, and the University of Texas at Austin. He has also been a fellow and a visiting scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for ScholarsinWashington,D.C.,andavisitingfellowatStanfordUniversity’sCenterfor International Security and Cooperation and Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. He can be reached at . NOTE The author would like to thank the Center for Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University for its support and hospitality while writing this essay. Originally published as: Sumit Ganguly, “Counterterrorism Cooperation in South Asia: History and Prospects,” National Bureau of Asian Research, NBR Special Report, no. 21, December 2009.© 2012 The National Bureau of Asian Research. This PDF is provided for the use of authorized recipients only. For specific terms of use, please contact . EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report examines the prospects and challenges for effective regional counterterrorism cooperation in South Asia. MAIN FINDINGS • Two discernable patterns emerge from the cases of terrorism in South Asia. First, these cases all involve indigenous uprisings that turned to the use of terrorism. Second, every case saw external intervention frequently exacerbating the original conflicts, prolonging their duration, and dramatically expanding their scope. • There are few examples of effective regional counterterrorism cooperation in the region. South Asian states have been more prone to use terrorist proxies to achieve foreign and security policy goals rather than evince any willingness to engage in viable counterterrorism cooperation. • Weak regional institutional frameworks, the long history of discord, conflict and distrust among the South Asian states, and organizational weaknesses of counterterrorism capabilities present significant barriers to regional counterterrorism cooperation. • TheprospectsofcounterterrorismcooperationinSouthAsiaaredistinctlymixed.Though the possibilities for Indo-Pakistani counterterrorism cooperation in the foreseeable future are negligible, there are limited prospects for cooperation between Bangladesh and India, Sri Lanka and India, and Nepal and India. POLICY IMPLICATIONS • No South Asian state, of its own accord, can devise a mechanism to overcome the considerable challenges that thwart regional counterterrorism cooperation. External actors such as the U.S. and the EU may be required to play a substantial and sustained role to initiate such a process. • Sustained pressure on Pakistan is needed to shift Islamabad’s policy position regarding the use of jihadi forces against India to attempt to wrest control of the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir and to exploit existing Hindu-Muslim tensions within Indian society. • There is potential for external actors, such as the U.S. and the EU, to play a role in assisting South Asian states with the functional features of policing and counterterrorism cooperation, such as training, border control management, electronic surveillance, and intelligence-sharing. 81 COUNTERTERRORISM COOPERATION IN SOUTH ASIA u GANGULY S outh Asia is no stranger to terrorism. In fact, terrorism as a political strategy long predates the creation of India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh as independent states. This report will briefly outline the history of terrorism in the region, discuss past attempts at counterterrorism cooperation, assess the current prospects, and outline the likely challenges that lie ahead in enhancing such cooperation. A Historical Overview of Terrorism in South Asia India In the early part of the twentieth century, a segment of the Indian nationalist movement veered toward political extremism and the use of terrorism.1 In the post-colonial era in South Asia, terrorism as a political tactic first re-emerged in the state of West Bengal in the form of the Maoist Naxalite movement. The Naxalites received considerable propaganda support, and possibly material assistance, from the Maoist regime in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which, at the time, was flush with revolutionary fervor and reflexively hostile toward India. The Indian state effectively but ruthlessly crushed this neophyte Maoist terrorist movement.2 Subsequently, the most significant indigenous terrorist movement erupted in the Indian border state of the Punjab in the early 1980s. The origins of this movement were deeply rooted in the exigencies of Indian domestic politics.3 Sensing an opportunity to...