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49 FOREWORD T his NBR Special Report on “Nontraditional Security Threats in Pakistan” is the second in a series of reports to be published in 2011–12, drawing on papers emerging from NBR’s project on “Nontraditional Regional Security Architecture for South Asia.” Funded by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation’s Asia Security Initiative, this three-year (2009–12) project examines opportunities for cooperation on shared nontraditional security concerns as potential building blocks toward developing a viable regional security architecture for South Asia. The project invites participation from a diverse group of experts from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, the Maldives, China, and the United States for a series of regional workshops, the third and final of which will be held November 8–9, 2011, in partnership with the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies in New Delhi. This essay by Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, prepared for the project’s first phase (2009–10), examines critical challenges faced by Pakistan today related to climate change, increasing population and urbanization, and food and water security. Much of the recent press on Pakistan has focused on terrorism and other threats to political stability—both emerging from as well as besetting the country—and the complex conundrum of U.S.-Pakistan relations given the country’s strategic significance in the AfPak context. However, Sheikh’s essay draws needed attention to other challenges that, if not addressed in the near future, could contribute to conditions that further exacerbate Pakistan’s internal security situation, with potentially serious repercussions for broader regional stability and security. As Sheikh points out, the communities most adversely affected by climate change and increasing food and water insecurity are those “segments of society that are at or below the poverty line.” Coupled with burgeoning population growth and a significant youth bulge, Pakistan’s looming nontraditional security challenges offer a potential recipe for disaster by aggravating the country’s existing traditional security problems. At the same time, the regional implications of the issues discussed by Sheikh, particularly vis-à-vis the impact of climate change on South Asia’s food and water security scenarios, provide countries with the critical impetus and, hopefully, opportunities to collaborate on addressing these challenges. In advocating that “South Asian countries work together to adopt ecosystemwide approaches that incorporate transboundary strategies,” Sheikh draws attention to an important dimension of the nontraditional security challenges faced by South Asia today. Such threats, because they will affect the region as a whole, will require that countries cooperate to find a regional solution. Mahin Karim Senior Associate, Political and Security Affairs, NBR Research Director for the NBR Nontraditional Security in South Asia project ...

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