Strategic Asia 2005-06: Military Modernization in an Era of Uncertainty

Military Modernization in Asia

Executive Summary This chapter overviews the strategic environment in Asia as it affects the military modernization efforts being undertaken by states in the region. main argument: Asian militaries are transforming their capabilities in order to cope with various kinds of strategic uncertainty. The defense transformation strategies followed by different Asian states reflect their specific threat environments, economic performance, security dilemmas, and national regime and state structures. This change has the potential to alter the region’s strategic balance, and poses significant opportunities and challenges for both the U.S. and Asia. policy implications: • Although a broad consensus exists across Asian states regarding the necessity of peace and political stability for the achievement of economic prosperity, a number of structural drivers, reinforced by internal considerations , are pushing states to invest in military modernization. • China, India, Russia, Japan, and the U.S. are each qualitatively improving the force structure, warfighting capabilities, and deployed inventory of their armed forces. Most states are also increasing defense outlays and incorporating RMA components into their military modernization programs , with significant consequences for the regional balance of power. • The U.S. will be called upon to maintain or even increase its role as regional security guarantor for a number of Asian states. This will require the U.S. to preserve its current military dominance, protect its existing alliances , and develop new ties to major states that are not allied or opposed to Washington. Not doing so would likely lead to military build-ups, increased tension, and even nuclear weapons proliferation. • China will increasingly be the most important actor in Asia, both for other Asian countries as well as for the U.S. Many Asian powers are responding, at least in part, by developing military capabilities and outlaying defense expenditures as a safeguard against China’s rise. Overview Military Modernization in Asia Ashley J. Tellis There is now a broad consensus that the Asian continent is poised to become the new center of gravity in global politics. From a historical perspective , this transformation is momentous in that—if present trends hold—for the first time since the beginning of modernity (circa 1500) the single largest concentration of global economic power will be found not in Europe or the Americas but rather in Asia. As the pioneering work of Angus Maddison has demonstrated, the Asian continent accounted for approximately 65% of the global product in 1500, in contrast to the 20% and .03% respective shares of Europe and the Americas. The era that followed saw the rise of colonialism, the emergence of revolutionary technical change, new patterns of global trade, and the phenomenon of major inter-state war. Asia’s share of the global product declined precipitously during this new era, largely thanks to the fluctuating fortunes of key states such as China, Japan, and India. By 1950 Europe’s share of the global product had risen to 29%, the Americas had claimed a hefty 38%, while the Asian portion of the total had fallen to only 18%.1 The end of World War II and the concomitant restructuring of the global system that followed ushered in new conditions that served to engender the recrudescence of Asia. The demise of the colonial order, the imperial (though contested) peace that was created and sustained by U.S. power, and the presence of purposive national elites in many Asian countries all combined to create the appropriate conditions for the success of specific national 1 Calculated from data in Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective (Paris: Development Centre of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2001), 261. Russia’s contribution to the global output was excluded in these figures. Ashley J. Tellis is Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is Research Director of the Strategic Asia Program at NBR and co-editor of Strategic Asia 2004–05: Confronting Terrorism in the Pursuit of Power. He can be reached at .  • Strategic Asia 2005–06 economic strategies that would produce sustained growth over time.2 These economic strategies—which consisted of directed capitalism first witnessed in Japan and then in North and Southeast Asia, China, and India—paved the way for an explosion of national economic growth and an expansion of Asia’s share in the global product. By 1998 Asia’s share of global GNP had risen to about 37%, and most projections indicate that this proportion is likely to increase even further...