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India and Pakistan: A Shift in the Military Calculus?
- National Bureau of Asian Research
- Chapter
- Additional Information
Executive Summary This chapter investigates how the security concerns and military modernization programs of India and Pakistan might alter regional security dynamics over the near term. main argument: • India’s forces today are sufficient to defend against China beyond the near term, but do not guarantee a quick, decisive conventional victory over Pakistan. Qualitative changes in technology, doctrine, and military culture , however, could shift the calculus in India’s favor in the next ten to fifteen years. • While trying to cope with domestic instability and maintain promising economic growth, Pakistan will modernize its armed forces at the margins in order to keep pace with India; these modernization efforts will continue to be based on incremental hardware improvements rather than doctrinal changes. policy implications: • Fundamental miscalculations regarding comparative force capabilities and terrorist violence remain the two most likely sparks for military confrontation . Stability could be fostered on the subcontinent if the nascent India-Pakistan dialogue can be reinforced, particularly in the institutionalization of conflict management measures. • Pressing for an unambiguous end to militant infiltration into Indian Kashmir and for the dismantlement of terrorist infrastructure, as well as helping reconstruct Pakistani civil society and political institutions that neutralize extremist elements, could help reduce the threat to Pakistan’s stability and regional peace posed by radical non-state groups. • If New Delhi pursues an agenda of tailored modernization, including interoperability with U.S. and other foreign forces, then India will have the potential to become an important security provider in the region. South Asia India and Pakistan: A Shift in the Military Calculus? John H. Gill Comparative military capabilities are a central theme in South Asian security affairs. They dominate the complex India-Pakistan security dynamic and inform all interactions between South Asia’s two largest powers and the rest of the international community. Given that the India-Pakistan relationship could once again explode into armed confrontation under the nuclear shadow, the status and prospects of Indian and Pakistani modernization programs warrant particular attention. The main findings of the chapter are as follows: India—whose military advantages are routinely overestimated—has been traditionally unable to translate its numerical superiority into a rapid battlefield victory over Pakistan . If it can overcome a set of significant obstacles, however, New Delhi may succeed in acquiring the hardware and doctrine necessary to shift the military calculus decisively in its favor by 2020. The military dimension is also central to Sino-Indian relations. India casts a wary eye over its Himalayan shoulder, carefully monitoring the progress of Chinese military modernization even as the two Asian giants slowly move toward more productive and cooperative ties. Barring a major change in China’s modernization efforts, India will only seek to equip itself with defensive and deterrent capabilities to keep Beijing at bay. Looking beyond the possibility of regional confrontations , the ability of India and Pakistan to keep pace with international military developments will largely determine each country’s respective utility John H. Gill is a retired U.S. Army colonel on the faculty of the Near East-South Asia Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University. He has served as a South Asia specialist with the Joint Staff, the U.S. Pacific Command, and the Defense Intelligence Agency. He can be reached at . The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the United States government. [3.89.116.152] Project MUSE (2024-03-29 02:47 GMT) 23 • Strategic Asia 2005–06 in counterterrorism operations, peacekeeping missions, and other cooperative international security enterprises. India, in particular, could become an important security provider along the sea lanes and littoral of the Indian Ocean. The speed, scope, and trajectory of military modernization in India and Pakistan are thus immediately relevant to the interests of the United States, Europe, and Asia. This chapter is divided into two main sections that investigate India and Pakistan’s responses to each country’s respective security concerns. Each section first examines the military capabilities of India and Pakistan within the context of these countries’ national strategies. An assessment looking at current and projected modernization programs then follows, before the chapter concludes with considerations into how these modernization programs might increase the options available to national leaders in coming years. India Consistent Goals, Expanded Strategies As the modern avatar of an ancient civilization and heir to the British Empire’s preeminence in the Indian Ocean, India...