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Strategic Asia 2005-06

Military Modernization in an Era of Uncertainty

edited by Ashley J. Tellis and Michael Wills

Publication Year: 2005

Strategic Asia 2005–06: Military Modernization in an Era of Uncertainty, the fifth volume in the Strategic Asia series, focuses on the defense capabilities of key Asian powers in the context of their grand strategies. Through a combination of country, regional, and topical studies, the book assesses how Asian states are modernizing their military programs in response to China's rise as a regional power, the war on terrorism, changes in U.S. force posture, the revolution in military affairs, and local security dilemmas. In addition to this central theme, each chapter examines the changing balance of power in Asia and identifies likely threats and opportunities that may arise in the next five years.

Published by: National Bureau of Asian Research

Title Page, Copyright

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Contents

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pp. v-viii

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Preface

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pp. ix-

Military modernization is occurring across Asia, but nowhere is it more striking than in China. For the past decade China has been rapidly modernizing its military capabilities through a combination of indigenous development, foreign purchases, and major improvements in doctrine, education, and training. The results...

Strategic Asia 2005–06 Overview

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pp. 1-

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Military Modernization in Asia

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pp. 3-38

Asian militaries are transforming their capabilities in order to cope with various kinds of strategic uncertainty. The defense transformation strategies followed by different Asian states reflect their specific threat environments, economic performance...

Strategic Asia 2005–06 Country Studies

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pp. 39-

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U.S. Military Modernization: Implications for U.S. Policy in Asia

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pp. 41-64

Despite both geostrategic upheaval (e.g., the rise of China, the nuclearization of North Korea, and the reach of Al Qaeda and affiliates into Asia) and hype over changing U.S. defense policy (e.g., Bush administration revolutions and the RMA), many attributes...

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China’s Military Modernization: Making Steady and Surprising Progress

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pp. 66-103

Although Chinese modernization has accelerated and improved in pace and scope at a surprising rate, this should not be misconstrued to mean that the PLA can transform itself into a first-class military with global reach over the next decade. The PLA’s...

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Japanese Military Modernization: In Search of a “Normal” Security Role

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pp. 104-135

Japan is moving along a long-term trajectory to assume a “normal” security role, as evidenced by (1) the JSDF’s acquisition of enhanced power projection capabilities and (2) the gradual strengthening of the U.S.-Japan alliance to play a more effective...

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The Strategic Futures and Military Capabilities of the Two Koreas

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pp. 136-173

Due to changing strategic priorities, the ground force standoff that has long dominated peninsular security will decline in relevance over the next five years. In order to compensate for North Korea’s economic vulnerabilities, Pyongyang will...

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Potemkin’s Treadmill: Russian Military Modernization

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pp. 174-206

Despite rising defense outlays, the Russian military is still an archaic, dysfunctional, and inefficient organization. Russia is therefore unlikely to effect military modernization...

Strategic Asia 2005–06 Regional Studies

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pp. 207-

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Central Asia: Military Modernization and the Great Game

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pp. 208-235

Military modernization in the countries of Central Asia is much more dependent on officer corps retraining and professionalization than on hardware upgrade. Furthermore, each country is dependent on external support from the...

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India and Pakistan: A Shift in the Military Calculus?

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pp. 236-267

India’s forces today are sufficient to defend against China beyond the near term, but do not guarantee a quick, decisive conventional victory over Pakistan. Qualitative changes in technology, doctrine, and military culture, however, could...

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Southeast Asia’s Defense Needs: Change or Continuity?

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pp. 268-302

The region’s security concerns are more internal than external: separatism, ethnic and religious dissidents, and the smuggling of contraband, people, and arms...

Strategic Asia 2005–06 Special Studies

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pp. 303-

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Australian Strategic Policy

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pp. 304-331

The 2000 White Paper broadened the focus of Australia’s strategic policy beyond a narrow emphasis on the defense of the continent to a conception that includes U.S. support for preserving...

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Prospects for Nuclear Proliferation in Asia

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pp. 332-361

Powerful incentives exist in Asia for countries to acquire nuclear weapons, including desires to alleviate insecurity and increase international status. The U.S. will likely remain the key actor in preventing nuclear proliferation in the region but such efforts will require...

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China’s Economic Growth: Implications for the Defense Budget

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pp. 362-385

Numerous weaknesses in the Chinese economy include a banking system with non-performing loans, serious environmental challenges, and the need to accommodate 300–500 million rural-to-urban migrants over the next two decades...

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Military Modernization in Taiwan

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pp. 386-422

Taiwan’s military is clearly modernizing (and will improve in the near- to mid-term). A reorientation away from an army-centric focus has led to such improvements as joint warfighting capability among branches of the military and improvements in missile defense systems, front-line military units, and naval...

Strategic Asia 2005–06 Indicators

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pp. 423-424

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Strategic Asia by the Numbers

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pp. 425-444

The following eighteen pages contain tables and figures drawn from NBR’s Strategic Asia database and its sources. The appendix consists of 21 tables covering: economic growth, trade and foreign investment, population size and growth; politics...

Index

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pp. 445-452

About the Authors

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pp. 453-458

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About Strategic Asia

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pp. 459-461

The Strategic Asia Program at The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) is a major ongoing research initiative that draws together top Asia studies specialists and international relations experts to assess the changing strategic environment in...


E-ISBN-13: 9781939131096

Page Count: 546
Publication Year: 2005

Series Title: Strategic Asia