Strategic Asia 2006-07: Trade, Interdependence, and Security

Rising China:The Search for Power and Plenty

executive summary This chapter analyzes the growth of China’s trade and economic interdependence with both its Asian neighbors and the United States and assesses the impact these developments will have on China’s security and the security of the Asia-Pacific region. main argument: China currently is engaged in a process of strategic economic development that will enhance the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) comprehensive national power. The purpose of this development is to enhance national wealth, creating a reasonably prosperous China by 2020 and providing the economic basis for China’s emergence as a regional and global great power. Toward these ends, China has sought to develop webs of economic interdependence with its regional neighbors. These connections are both supporting the PRC’s economic development and linking these neighbors to China in friendly and cooperative relations. China is also exhibiting restraint and greater cooperation with its neighbors—behavior explained by economic interdependence as well as Beijing’s own foreign policy strategy. policy implications: • The webs of interdependence, coupled with Beijing’s desire for regional peace and stability, likely will constrain militaristic adventurism by the Chinese around their periphery over the next five to ten years. • Given the growth of economic interdependence between China and its Asia-Pacific neighbors, several of these countries would be reluctant to jeopardize the benefits of trade with the PRC in the event of SinoU .S. conflict over Taiwan. This reluctance will complicate U.S. military operations in the event of such conflict. • The U.S. and the international community should continue to encourage China’s active participation in the global economy and multilateral international institutions. Once China’s rise to great power status is achieved, China’s interests may change from basic acceptance of the international status quo to more revisionist goals. Engagement and socialization today are the best hedge against a future revisionist China. China Michael R. Chambers, Associate Professor of Political Science at Indiana State Univesity, is an editor of Asian Security. He can be reached at . The author wishes to thank Brandy Jolliff, Shyam Kulkarni, Peter Mattis, and Evan Morrisey for research assistance. Rising China: The Search for Power and Plenty Michael R. Chambers This chapter seeks to outline the current and future impact of China’s growing trade and economic interdependence on the security both of China and of the Asia-Pacific region. The chapter will seek to answer two basic questions. First, how do growing trade and interdependence relate to and impact China’s grand strategy as it is rising to great power status? Second, will China’s increasing involvement with and integration into global trade help to constrain China from military adventurism? The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is currently engaged in strategic economic growth with the goal of becoming a moderately well-off society by the year 2020 and providing the economic basis for China’s drive to become a great power. Beijing sees not a mutually exclusive choice between wealth and power but a close interrelationship between economic development and security, with each dependent on the other. The key themes and arguments of this chapter are threefold: First, China’s goal to become a great power is based on the development of “comprehensive national power” that is rooted in a strong and prosperous economy. Beijing is using foreign trade and investment as key drivers for the development of its economy. Second, China seeks to develop webs of interdependence with its regional neighbors in order to link them to the PRC as well as to create a buffer zone to help Beijing resist any hostile pressure from the United States. China’s efforts to build interdependence also are intended to dampen Asian 66 • Strategic Asia 2006–07 anxieties about the “China threat” as the PRC rises. These efforts appear to be generally successful. Finally, economic interdependence appears to be constraining China in cooperative relations with its neighbors. Also at work, however, is Chinese self-restraint—based on Beijing’s strategic desire for a peaceful and stable regional security environment in which to pursue economic development. Based on the analysis presented below, three main policy implications both for the United States and for the international community become evident. First, the webs of interdependence, coupled with Beijing’s desire for regional peace and stability, will likely constrain militaristic adventurism by the Chinese around their periphery over the next five to ten years. Second...