Strategic Asia 2006-07: Trade, Interdependence, and Security

Preface

Preface Richard J. Ellings Strategic Asia 2006–07: Trade, Interdependence, and Security is the sixth in the series of annual reports produced by the Strategic Asia Program at NBR. This year’s volume investigates the growing economic interdependence among Asian states and assesses the implications of these burgeoning economic ties for security in the region. Although some scholars postulate that economic interdependence sublimates conflict among nations, the historical record proves inconclusive. The first great era of globalization ended in the breakdown of the British-enforced international free trade system and the tragedy of World War I. The regional fault lines in Asia, well documented in previous volumes of Strategic Asia, necessitate a hard look at how trade can ameliorate or exacerbate existing tensions. The changing strategic landscape is fraught with an uncertain mix of opportunity and challenge. Amid tensions over the meaning and impact of China’s and India’s rise and Japan’s increasing assertiveness in global affairs, barriers to trade and economic interaction are falling. The degree to which states in the region are integrated into the global economy varies immensely from advanced states like Japan to WTO-hopefuls Vietnam and Russia to the pariah states of Myanmar (Burma) and North Korea. In many countries, most notably the great powers of the Asia-Pacific (China, Japan, Russia, India, and the United States), economic ties are both strengthening and complicatingstates’relationswithprofoundimplicationsforpolicydecisions. In many Asian states, policymakers wary of China face opposition to their national security strategies by powerful business and economic interest groups opposed to any policy which might destabilize relations with China. Nowhere can this be seen more clearly than in Sino-Japanese relations, where a hot economic relationship belies frosty political interaction. It is within the realm of this regional and great power interaction and competition x • Strategic Asia 2006–07 for influence that the effects of intense economic interaction need close examination. Because it merits an entire volume itself, the effects of globalization on governmental change—especially on democratization, for example—is not tackled in the pages that follow. This will be the topic of a future NBR study, as the expectation of this effect lies at the core of long-term U.S. strategy toward China and many other non-democratic states. The National Bureau of Asian Research developed the Strategic Asia Program to fulfill three objectives: (1) to provide the best possible understanding of the current strategic environment in Asia;1 (2) to look forward five years, and in some cases beyond, to contemplate the region’s future;and(3)toestablisharecordofdataandassessmentforthoseinterested in understanding changes taking place in the Asian strategic landscape. Keeping within the scope of the annual volumes, Strategic Asia 2006– 07: Trade, Interdependence, and Security is designed to be an integrated set of original studies that aims to provide the most authoritative information and analysis possible. Through a series of country, regional, and special studies, this volume discusses the depths and varieties of trade, degrees of economic interdependency, and future expectations of trade, all within broader analyses of states’ strategic objectives. The implications for the United States are assessed in the hope that identifying the potential consequences of these economic developments and state strategies in the region will assist U.S. decisionmakers in their efforts to craft effective policy toward Asia. A companion website provides free access to the comprehensive Strategic Asia database, which contains a wealth of indicators for Asian demographic, trade, communication, and financial trends; measures of states’ economic and military capabilities; and information on political and energy dynamics. Drawing together data from disparate sources, the database allows users to compare these statistics across a range of years, countries, and indicators, providing an invaluable resource to illustrate and assess the momentous changes underway in Asia. 1 The Strategic Asia Program considers as “Asia” the entire eastern half of the Eurasian landmass and the arc of offshore islands in the western Pacific. This vast expanse can be pictured as an area centered on China and consisting of four distinct sub-regions arrayed clockwise around it: Northeast Asia (including the Russian Far East, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan), Southeast Asia (including both its mainland and maritime components), South Asia (including India and Pakistan, and bordered to the west by Afghanistan), and Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and southern Russia). The Strategic Asia Program also tracks significant developments across the Asia-Pacific to the United States and Canada. Ellings...