Strategic Asia 2007-08: Domestic Political Change and Grand Strategy

Japan’s Long Transition: The Politicsof Recalibrating Grand Strategy

executive summary This chapter examines political developments in Japan and analyzes how domestic politics affects the country’s strategic response to the changing international environment. main argument: • Japan has moved toward a two-party system, and political leadership and the mobilization of public support matter more for governance than before. The prime minister and the cabinet secretariat together now wield greater executive power, and the bureaucratic state has been reformed to respond more effectively to security as well as economic challenges. • Japan has become more willing to contribute to its alliance with the U.S. and various international security activities; anti-militarism norms and domestic politics, however, are likely to restrain Japan from using military force abroad. • Japan’s grand strategy will evolve incrementally rather than change dramatically. Japan will continue to balance between the security imperative of its alliance with the U.S. and the economic imperative of developing a favorable Asian environment for its long-term commercial interests. policy implications: • The recent revival of Japan’s economy and Japan’s trend toward greater security and diplomatic activism are generally consistent with U.S. interests. The U.S. benefits from a Japan that is more capable, proactive, and influential in Asia. • Although the U.S. and Japan converge strategically, there will continue to be tactical differences stemming from different priorities and perspectives. Such tactical differences require U.S. policymakers to remain attentive and not complacent about the alliance. Sensitivity to the risks of inflated expectations and entrapment as Japan recalibrates its grand strategy will prove useful to the U.S. Japan Japan’s Long Transition: The Politics of Recalibrating Grand Strategy Mike M. Mochizuki The changing international environment presents Japan with strategic challenges and opportunities in both the traditional security and economic realms. On the one hand various security uncertainties (e.g., North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, the rise of China, and international terrorism) are testing Japanese defense policies; on the other hand the end of the Cold War has also given Japan an opportunity to help create a more stable regional security order. Economic globalization provides Japan an opportunity to extend and deepen its overseas commercial reach but also challenges Japan to maintain its industrial and technological competitiveness. Although shaping Japan’s calculations, these developments do not by themselves ordain the country’s strategic response. As with any other major power, Japan’s grand strategy is not determined entirely by its external environment, geographic position, and natural resource endowments. Domestic forces do play “a pivotal role in the selection of a grand strategy.”1 1 Richard Rosecrance and Arthur A. Stein, “Beyond Realism: The Study of Grand Strategy,” in The Domestic Bases of Grand Strategy, ed. Richard Rosecrance and Arthur A. Stein (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1993), 5. In line with Rosecrance and Stein, this chapter considers “grand strategy” in terms of a state’s adaptation of non-military as well as military resources to achieve security but also treats security in a broad sense to include both military and economic security. This broad conception of security, which has strong historical roots in Japan, is exemplified by the notion of “comprehensive security.” Mike M. Mochizuki holds the Japan-U.S. Relations Chair in Memory of Gaston Sigur at the Elliott School of International Affairs in George Washington University. He can be reached at . The author would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions on an earlier version of this chapter and Stephanie Renzi for her preparation of figures 1 and 2. He is also grateful to Ellis Krauss for sharing his knowledge of Japanese politics and for helping clarify the author’s own thinking. 70 • Strategic Asia 2007–08 This chapter examines how domestic political developments after the end of the Cold War have affected Japan’s grand strategy, which was institutionalized after World War II. The chapter argues that, despite significantchangesintheexternalenvironment,domesticfactorsaresteering Japan to incrementally recalibrate rather than radically alter its grand strategy. After briefly summarizing the main parameters and evolution of Japan’s grand strategy during the Cold War era, the chapter analyzes change in political institutions and processes since the early 1990s by focusing on the following: party system and electoral politics, the bureaucratic state and executive power, and interest intermediation and civil society. The chapter then examines Japan’s contemporary strategic discourse and the way this discourse is linked to elite politics and public...